Oct 26, 2026
negativeFed Faces 90% Hold Odds at 3.75%–4% Wednesday — Brent Near $110 and Thursday's PCE Keep December Hike in Play
The Federal Reserve is 90% likely to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4% on Wednesday, but traders still see a December hike as firmly possible and expect at least two quarter-point increases by mid-2027. Brent crude eased 1.89% to $109.59 on Monday after President Donald Trump said there would be no immediate strike on Iran, offering relief from last week's surge. Thursday's September PCE inflation reading and third-quarter GDP, expected at 3.2% growth, could decide whether a hawkish pause hardens into a December tightening.

