NEW YORK — Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after Wednesday's closing bell, has emerged as the most closely watched corporate event on Wall Street this week, with investors hoping the AI chipmaking giant can provide a decisive catalyst amid mounting skepticism about the durability of the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nvidia to report earnings of $1.52 to $1.53 per share and revenue of approximately $65.7 billion for the quarter ending in January 2026, in line with management's own guidance of $65 billion issued last quarter. Year-over-year, that would represent earnings growth north of 70%, underscoring the extraordinary pace of demand for Nvidia's data center GPUs. The company's next-quarter revenue guidance, expected to target approximately $71.7 billion, will likely carry equal if not greater weight with investors.
Gross margins are another focal point. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress has said the company's goal was to exit fiscal 2026 in the mid-70% range for adjusted gross margins, recovering from a dip caused by higher input costs earlier in the year. Last quarter, Nvidia reported an adjusted gross margin of 73.6%, a sequential improvement that encouraged bulls. Sustaining that trajectory will be critical to the investment thesis that Nvidia can maintain pricing power even as hyperscalers — including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon — accelerate development of proprietary silicon.
The Blackwell GPU architecture remains central to the narrative. On the last earnings call, CFO Kress described a $500 billion revenue opportunity through the end of 2026 encompassing Blackwell and the next-generation Rubin platform. Investors will listen carefully Wednesday for any updates to that demand pipeline, as well as commentary on the ramp of Blackwell Ultra chips expected later in the year.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard is China. Nvidia has not incorporated any Chinese revenue into its Q4 guidance due to ongoing export control restrictions, yet CEO Jensen Huang has estimated the Chinese market represents a potential $50 billion annual opportunity — growing 50% per year. Reports from December indicated Huang made progress in Washington toward allowing sales of H200 chips to Chinese customers, though the situation remains fluid.
Nvidia shares have gained only about 1% year-to-date in 2026 after a historic rally in prior years. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF has shed nearly 6% this year as investors reassess the return on AI capital expenditures. Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo both raised their Nvidia price targets ahead of earnings, to $200 and $220 respectively, citing continued hyperscaler spending momentum.