US technology stocks opened Monday's session with a relief rally as investors returned from the three-day Independence Day holiday weekend, with Nasdaq-100 futures advancing roughly 1% and S&P 500 contracts gaining 0.4% ahead of the opening bell. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF, which tracks the 25 largest US-listed chip companies, rose 2.4% in pre-market trading, partially reversing a sharp late-June decline that had briefly erased approximately $1 trillion in semiconductor market capitalization over a two-day stretch.
Last week was the strongest week for US equities in several months despite being shortened by the July 4 holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2%, the S&P 500 added 1.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.1%, capping what Wall Street described as the best quarter for US equities since 2020. The Dow closed Thursday at a record high of 52,900.07, even as weakness in AI semiconductor names — Micron fell 5.5%, AMD dropped 4.3%, and Intel slid 5.3% — weighed on the Nasdaq and kept the S&P 500 flat on the final day of the holiday-shortened week.
Monday's rebound has multiple catalysts reinforcing each other. Foxconn's Sunday evening release of Q2 2026 revenue showing a 39.8% year-over-year gain, driven by AI server demand, provided independent third-party confirmation that hyperscaler capital spending remains robust. Separately, the forced passive buying tied to SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion effective Tuesday is generating elevated activity across the index, with index arbitrageurs and ETF managers rebalancing positions throughout the session, which tends to lift broader risk appetite in the constituent universe.
Europe's Stoxx 600 hovered near a record high in early Monday trading, providing a supportive backdrop from overseas markets. Asian equity results were mixed, with South Korean stocks showing some hesitation ahead of Samsung Electronics' Tuesday earnings release, but the direction of US futures pointed firmly higher as the session got underway.
The macro backdrop for the week is dominated by a cluster of scheduled catalysts that will test whether Monday's relief rally can extend. Samsung's preliminary Q2 results on Tuesday represent the first major earnings-season data point for the global semiconductor cycle. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday, which investors will parse for any additional context on the rate path following Chair Kevin Warsh's unusually brief post-meeting statement. The IMF is scheduled to release its updated World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, which may carry implications for the dollar and rate expectations depending on whether global growth projections are revised up or down.
Strategists noted that the post-holiday session has historically carried an upward bias during bull market regimes, driven in part by retail re-engagement after multi-day breaks and in part by institutional position-setting at the start of a new calendar period. The convergence of strong prior-week momentum, a Foxconn AI demand validation, and the SpaceX mechanics is providing an unusually dense cluster of near-term catalysts for a Monday that might otherwise have been quiet after the holiday.