Nvidia stands at the center of Wall Street's attention this week as the artificial intelligence chip bellwether prepares to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings on Wednesday, February 25, after the market close. With the broader technology sector under significant pressure from AI disruption fears, Nvidia's results and guidance carry unusual weight — not just for the company's own stock, but for the entire AI trade and, given the chipmaker's roughly 7.4% weighting in the S&P 500, for the benchmark index itself.
Analysts tracked by LSEG are forecasting revenue of approximately $66 billion, representing year-over-year growth of around 68%, and earnings per share of $1.53, up roughly 72% from the same period a year ago. However, seasoned Nvidia watchers caution that in the current environment, merely meeting consensus is often treated as a disappointment. Unofficial "whisper numbers" circulating on institutional trading desks are reportedly as high as $67 billion, and any guidance figure below $70 billion for the current quarter could trigger a negative reaction despite technically strong results.
The primary focal point beyond the headline numbers is demand for Nvidia's Blackwell GPU architecture. CEO Jensen Huang said on the previous earnings call that Blackwell chip orders were "off the charts" and that cloud GPU capacity was fully sold out across all generations. Since then, the hyperscalers have further elevated their capital expenditure forecasts — Alphabet guided toward $175 billion to $185 billion in 2026 infrastructure spending, while Amazon signaled approximately $200 billion. Wall Street will be listening closely for commentary on whether those spending plans are translating into firm purchase orders and how quickly Blackwell revenue is ramping.
Gross margins will also be a key metric. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress has guided for margins in the "mid-seventies" for fiscal 2027, and any sign that input cost pressures from Blackwell's complex manufacturing process are eroding profitability could weigh on shares despite strong revenue growth. In the nine months ending October 2025, non-GAAP gross margins stood at 69.5%, a step down from the prior-year period, and investors want to see evidence the company is on a path back toward its historical peak levels.
A potential wildcard is China. Export restrictions effectively removed China data center compute as a meaningful revenue source in the third quarter, with Huang acknowledging that H20 chip sales totaled only about $50 million after anticipated large orders failed to materialize. Any relaxation of export controls or indication that a workaround product is gaining regulatory clearance would represent pure incremental revenue upside and could be the most positive surprise available in Wednesday's report.
S&P 500 futures are pointing to a modestly positive open ahead of the report, with the Meta-AMD deal helping restore some confidence in AI infrastructure spending. Shares of Nvidia were trading near $191 on Monday's close, up approximately 2.7% for the year — a relative standout in a Nasdaq that has declined more than 2.5% since January 1. Analysts at Wedbush, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all carry buy or outperform ratings with price targets ranging from $185 to $220, reflecting broadly constructive sentiment tempered by near-term uncertainty.