U.S. equity markets opened cautiously lower on Tuesday, March 10, as investors weighed President Donald Trump's assertion that the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran was nearing an end against conflicting signals from Tehran that fighting would continue. U.S. crude oil fell more than 6% to around $88.75 per barrel, its first monthly decline, after Trump told CBS News that ships are again moving through the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway whose disruption has roiled global energy markets since Operation Epic Fury commenced on February 28.
The conflict, now in its eleventh day, has been among the most consequential geopolitical events for financial markets in years. At its peak, oil surged past $110 per barrel as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively halting a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply transits. The disruption triggered an immediate repricing across energy, shipping insurance, airline, and refining sectors.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Tuesday would mark the most intense day of U.S. strikes yet, even as Iran's foreign ministry indicated readiness to continue the conflict under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who was elevated to the position following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes. The geopolitical uncertainty has amplified inflation concerns, complicating the Federal Reserve's rate calculus and weighing on credit-sensitive sectors including banks and private credit.
Despite the reprieve in crude prices, broad equity indices remained under pressure. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 246 points, dragged lower by losses in Salesforce, IBM, and UnitedHealth Group, while the S&P 500 edged lower as investors maintained a preference for cash amid persistent uncertainty. Safe-haven assets rallied sharply, with gold surging over 2% to $5,219 per ounce and silver gaining more than 5%.
Strategists at BlackRock noted that while the oil shock is likely to create near-term market turbulence, a short-lived disruption may not derail the broader economic expansion. The firm maintained its preference for U.S. and Japanese equities while continuing to underweight long-duration government bonds. Morgan Stanley warned that protracted supply disruptions could box in the Federal Reserve between inflation concerns and growth risks, potentially pressuring both equity and fixed-income markets. Airlines, consumer discretionary, and retail sectors remain particularly exposed to any sustained elevation in fuel and input costs.