Gold reasserted itself as the premier safe-haven asset on Monday, with spot prices climbing nearly 2 percent to test $5,400 per ounce — their highest level since late January — as the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran ignited a classic flight-to-quality rotation across global financial markets. U.S. gold futures surged 2.58 percent to $5,382.60 per ounce, while silver simultaneously jumped 1.68 percent to $95.35 per ounce before trimming gains. Indian markets reflected the global move with MCX gold jumping 3.5 percent.
The breakout came after gold had been tracking in a volatile but broadly sideways range for much of February, having retreated from its all-time high near $5,600 per ounce set in late January. The conflict catalyst provided a clean directional impulse, as traders who had been pricing in the possibility of U.S.-Iran escalation rushed to add exposure once the strikes were confirmed. Analysts at Saxo Bank's commodity strategy desk characterized the move as the beginning of a fresh leg higher, noting that the physical disruption to global energy markets could sustain safe-haven demand for weeks or months.
JPMorgan's commodities team raised its gold price target to $6,300 per ounce by December 2026, a level that would represent an approximately 17 percent advance from Monday's intraday highs. The bank cited three primary drivers: first, a sustained geopolitical risk premium as the Iran conflict unfolds; second, the inflationary impulse from elevated oil prices, which it projects will keep real interest rates lower for longer; and third, continued central bank accumulation of gold reserves by emerging market institutions seeking to diversify away from dollar-denominated assets.
Independent metals traders expressed some caution, noting that the initial spike on the fact of confirmed strikes could face a partial retracement as markets digest the broader implications. City Index analyst Fawad Razaqzada said a move toward $5,500 and potentially toward January's record highs remained the path of least resistance, but flagged the possibility that a stronger U.S. dollar — itself a beneficiary of higher oil prices given the United States' net energy exporter status — could cap gold's advance beyond those levels.
Gold mining equities were among the strongest performers in Monday's session, with producers Newmont, Barrick Gold, and Agnico Eagle Mines all advancing as investors sought equity leverage to the bullion rally. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was tracking for one of its strongest single-day gains of 2026. Silver, platinum, and palladium all moved higher in sympathy, while the broader commodity complex benefited from the inflationary shock premium now embedded in energy and materials markets.
Technically, analysts noted that gold has now reclaimed the key $5,300 resistance level that had been acting as a ceiling for most of February, and that a sustained close above $5,400 would open the door for a retest of the all-time high above $5,600. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped sharply on Monday — heading toward its largest single-day advance since October — as bond markets priced in the inflation implications of a sustained oil price shock, a dynamic that historically would weigh on gold but that the metal appeared to shrug off given the intensity of safe-haven demand.