HOUSTON — Crude oil markets surged to their highest levels since the 2022 energy crisis on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate futures climbing more than 11% to $90.14 per barrel and global benchmark Brent advancing 8% to $92.32, as the ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict continued to choke commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — the world's single most critical energy chokepoint.
The near-total halt of tanker traffic through the strait, which carries approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day — roughly one-fifth of global daily consumption — has triggered a supply shock across crude, refined products, and liquefied natural gas markets simultaneously. Tanker operators and their insurers have declined to send vessels through the waterway following a series of Iranian drone and missile attacks that have damaged at least five tankers and killed two sailors since the conflict began.
Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, issued a stark warning to the Financial Times on Friday, stating that Gulf exporters would be forced to halt production within days if tankers cannot safely transit the strait. He cautioned that a prolonged shutdown could drive Brent to $150 per barrel and destabilize global economies. QatarEnergy has already ceased production at its two principal LNG facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed after drone attacks struck those sites earlier this week.
President Donald Trump escalated the conflict on Friday, posting on social media that there will be 'no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender,' dashing hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution and sending oil futures to intraday highs. Trump had previously stated that the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers, though administration officials acknowledged that the Navy lacks sufficient assets in the region to protect the volume of ships currently stranded around the strait.
For equity investors, the energy sector has emerged as the only meaningful refuge in what is shaping up to be the S&P 500's worst week since October. Exxon Mobil and Chevron each gained more than 1% in Friday trading, while Occidental Petroleum surged 3.3%. Refiners, pipeline operators, and domestic shale producers are broadly higher as investors rotate aggressively into names that stand to benefit from elevated crude prices.
Wall Street analysts are recalibrating their price targets accordingly. Barclays analysts noted that Brent could hit $100 per barrel as the security situation in the Middle East spirals, with UBS analysts citing the possibility of prices above $120 in an extended disruption scenario. Goldman Sachs, which had previously modeled $100 oil during last year's shorter Israel-Iran skirmish, is now running scenarios for a protracted conflict.
Beyond the direct impact on fuel costs, the crisis is introducing a significant inflationary wildcard into an already fragile macroeconomic environment. Capital Economics estimates that a sustained rise to $100 oil would add 0.6 to 0.7 percentage points to global inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's already delicate policy calculus as it weighs a weakening labor market against renewed price pressures.