NEW YORK/LONDON — Bitcoin breached the $75,000 level during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, extending gains that have stunned market observers who expected the cryptocurrency to sell off alongside risk assets during the Iran war. Since U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, Bitcoin has risen nearly 14%, while Brent crude has surged more than 40%, the MSCI World Index has fallen roughly 4%, and gold — traditionally the premier geopolitical hedge — has actually declined approximately 5% for the month. In New York morning trading, Bitcoin pulled back to near $73,700, but traders noted that the $75,000 breach carries technical significance as a level that had served as resistance since April 2025.
The dynamic represents a significant evolution in how institutional capital behaves during geopolitical crises. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani attributed Bitcoin's resilience to a structural shift in ownership — a move from retail-dominated speculation toward institutional long-term holdings facilitated by spot Bitcoin ETFs and the continued accumulation program of Michael Saylor's Strategy. 'Long-term holders and institutional capital are strengthening Bitcoin's capital base even as retail investors sell,' Chhugani wrote in a note to clients Monday. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed more than $1.3 billion in net inflows in March, partially reversing the $3.8 billion in outflows seen in February when the war first broke out.
The initial market reaction to the Iran strikes was classically risk-off: Bitcoin dropped from approximately $66,000 toward $63,000 within hours of the first strikes on February 28, as leveraged traders were forced to liquidate positions. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations occurred in the initial weekend. Gold surged. The dollar strengthened. For several days, Bitcoin appeared to confirm its status as a risk asset. Then, within days, the narrative inverted. By March 5, Bitcoin had rebounded to approximately $73,000, while gold had given up its initial gains as dollar strength and rising bond yields pressured bullion. The BTC-gold correlation shifted from negative to positive — a statistically significant regime change.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, summarized the inversion on social media: Bitcoin had outperformed gold and the Nasdaq 100 since the conflict began, with BTC posting gains while both traditional assets declined. JPMorgan maintained its long-term Bitcoin price target of $266,000 based on a volatility-adjusted comparison to gold, noting that Bitcoin's institutional base is now large enough to provide meaningful price support during market stress events. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC at Wintermute, offered a more measured view: 'The oil move matters more for crypto than the geopolitics itself.' If elevated oil forces the Fed to delay rate cuts indefinitely, even Bitcoin would face headwinds.
The stablecoin sector is also benefiting from the conflict's financial disruption. Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, has seen its shares more than double over the past month as analysts point to growing demand for dollar-denominated digital assets in conflict-affected regions, a higher-for-longer rate environment that boosts reserve yields, and the rapid expansion of USDC into tokenized assets and AI-driven payment applications.
For the $100,000 investor, Bitcoin presents a high-reward, high-risk opportunity. The safe-haven narrative is gaining institutional traction, spot ETF inflows are recovering, and the technical picture has improved markedly with the $75,000 breakout. The risk: a prolonged war that keeps oil elevated and forces the Fed into a hawkish hold could ultimately pressure all risk assets, crypto included. A peace dividend that sends oil lower, however, could release pent-up risk appetite and drive Bitcoin toward its prior all-time high.