Costco Wholesale is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Thursday, with analysts expecting adjusted earnings of about $6.53 to $6.55 per share and revenue near $94.8 billion to $94.9 billion, according to consensus figures compiled by TipRanks and Benzinga. The report will offer a read on consumer spending under pressure from elevated energy prices and a Federal Reserve that is raising rates.
Those estimates compare with adjusted EPS of $5.87 and revenue of $86.16 billion in the year-ago quarter, implying growth of roughly 11% to 12% on earnings and 10% on sales. Costco discloses monthly sales, so investors already know fiscal fourth-quarter net sales were $93.9 billion, up 11.3% year over year, with comparable sales up 9.4% and U.S. comparable sales up 10.7%. The company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the past five quarters.
Because the top line is largely known, attention is turning to profitability. A Motley Fool analysis noted that profit has outgrown revenue this year, with EPS up 13.5% through the first three quarters against net sales growth of 9.6%, and that earnings growth below 11.3% would suggest margins moved the wrong way. BTIG analyst Robert Drbul expects gross margin to have expanded about 18 basis points despite gas price volatility, and maintains a Buy rating with a $1,125 price target.
Membership fee income is the second focus. Its growth decelerated from 13.6% in the second quarter to 10.7% in the third, when it reached $1.37 billion, and a little more than a quarter of that growth came from the U.S. and Canada fee increase that took effect in September 2024. Executive memberships grew 9.6% in the third quarter and account for about 75% of sales. Analysts are watching whether renewal rates continue to stabilize and whether digitally acquired members are offsetting the fading benefit of the fee hike.
Higher fuel prices cut both ways. Elevated gas prices tend to drive traffic to warehouse clubs, and Placer.ai data showed Costco visits rising 8.2% year over year in the second calendar quarter, ahead of rival clubs and large retailers. However, rising fuel and transportation costs can pressure margins in the core retail business, and some analysts caution that earnings from the main business could come in below consensus once tariff refunds are excluded. The company has also raised prices on some private-label auto care products as crude costs climb.
Costco shares were trading near $900, around eight-month lows, ahead of the report. Options markets imply a move of about 3.5%, or roughly $31.60, in either direction, larger than the 1.4% average post-earnings move over the past eight quarters. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with 15 Buy, five Hold and one Sell recommendation, and one preview noted the stock has a history of selling off on good news. The report arrives on a day when Treasury yields are near multi-decade highs, which can amplify reactions in premium-valued consumer names.