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Gold Trades Near $4,571 as Stagflation Fears and Iran War Escalation Drive Safe-Haven Surge; J.P. Morgan Targets $5,055 by Year-End

Gold is trading near $4,571 per ounce on Thursday, having rallied sharply from under $3,000 earlier in 2025, as the Iran war, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and rising stagflation fears combine to make bullion one of the most compelling safe-haven assets in the current environment. J.P. Morgan Global Research is targeting $5,055 per ounce by year-end 2026, while some models project a path toward $6,500 if the energy crisis deepens and real yields fall as growth deteriorates.

Bitcoin Surges Through $75,000 as Iran War Reshapes Safe-Haven Narrative; BTC Outperforms Gold, Stocks Since Conflict Began

Bitcoin pushed through the psychologically significant $75,000 threshold in Asian trading on Tuesday — gaining nearly 14% since the Iran war erupted on February 28 — as the cryptocurrency increasingly attracts safe-haven capital that has historically flowed to gold and the U.S. dollar. With Brent crude up more than 40%, global equities down 4%, and gold actually lower on the month, Bitcoin's relative outperformance is forcing a fundamental reassessment of digital assets' role in institutional portfolios during geopolitical crises.

February CPI Meets Forecasts at 2.4%, But Iran War Threatens to Reignite Inflation in Coming Months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that February's Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year, in line with economist expectations, with core CPI advancing 2.5%. While the on-target print briefly steadied markets, analysts warn the data predates the Iran conflict-driven oil price spike, leaving the Federal Reserve's rate path highly uncertain as energy-driven inflation risks build for the months ahead.

Iran War Enters Day 11: Oil Retreats From Highs as Trump Signals Conflict Nearing End

U.S. crude oil tumbled to approximately $88 per barrel on Tuesday after President Trump indicated the war in Iran may be approaching its conclusion, offering markets a measure of relief after oil had briefly surpassed $110 per barrel. Iranian authorities, however, signaled readiness to continue the conflict, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated across energy, defense, and airline sectors.

Wall Street Strategists Warn Iran War Could Raise Risk of Market Meltdown

Wall Street strategists are warning that escalating tensions with Iran could significantly increase the risk of a major market downturn in 2026. Rising energy prices, geopolitical instability, and fragile investor sentiment are combining to create a volatile environment that could challenge global equities in the months ahead.

Fed Rate Cut Timeline Pushed to September as Oil Shock Complicates Monetary Policy Calculus

Rising oil prices and a deteriorating labor market have created a near-impossible policy environment for the Federal Reserve, with traders now pricing the next rate cut no earlier than September. The combination of a 92,000-job loss in February and oil prices above $100 per barrel has revived fears of stagflation not seen since the early 1980s, leaving policymakers with few clean options.

Middle East War Rattles Markets as Brent Crude Climbs Toward $84 and Iran Vows Escalation

U.S. equity futures retreated Thursday as Brent crude resumed its climb toward $84 a barrel after Iran pledged to escalate its retaliation against American and Israeli strikes, disrupting Persian Gulf shipping lanes and reigniting fears that prolonged conflict could stoke inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts well into 2026.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

Bitcoin Surges Past $71,000, Testing Its Role as a Digital Safe Haven Amid Iran War

Bitcoin climbed above $71,000 on Wednesday, rising more than 6% over 24 hours as investors sought alternatives to equities roiled by Middle East conflict. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded three consecutive days of net inflows, and analysts at Tagus Capital described the cryptocurrency as exhibiting "defensive characteristics" during the crisis — a notable shift from its historical tendency to decline alongside risk assets during geopolitical stress events.