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Iran Ceasefire Hangs by a Thread as Vance Heads to Islamabad; Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed

Vice President JD Vance departed Friday for Islamabad to lead U.S. peace talks with Iran this weekend, even as the fragile two-week ceasefire announced Tuesday showed serious cracks — with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, oil prices hovering near $98 per barrel, and both Iranian and Israeli leaders trading accusations of violations just days into the truce.

Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Oil Back Above $100

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sparked a historic rally on Wednesday, but optimism faded Thursday as Iran continued restricting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI crude back above $100 per barrel and sending equities lower after the prior session's surge.

Trump's Iran Ultimatum Deadline Arrives: Markets Brace for Binary Outcome as Oil Tops $112

President Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — or face destruction of its civilian infrastructure — arrived Tuesday as global markets churned under binary event risk. WTI crude traded above $112 per barrel while equities oscillated in a narrow range, with the VIX surging nearly 6% to 25.30. A Pakistani-mediated 45-day ceasefire framework known as the Islamabad Accord has emerged from diplomatic back-channels, though sources indicate a deal before the hard deadline remained unlikely.

Energy Crisis Deepens: Hormuz Blockade Removes Nearly One Billion Barrels From Global Supply as Gasoline Hits $4.11

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed nearly one billion barrels of oil equivalent from global supply according to TD Securities estimates, as WTI crude climbed to $112.41 per barrel Tuesday. National average gasoline prices reached $4.11 per gallon — 38% above pre-war levels — while the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warned a sustained closure could shave 2.9% from quarterly U.S. GDP. Goldman Sachs forecasts WTI could reach $130 if the Strait remains shut through month-end.

OPEC+ Reaffirms Output Cuts Through Q2 2026, Keeping Oil Markets Tight

OPEC+ ministers reaffirmed their collective output reduction strategy through the end of Q2 2026, citing persistent demand uncertainty from China and the potential impact of U.S. tariff policy on global trade flows. Brent crude held above $76 per barrel following the announcement, supporting energy sector equities across integrated majors and upstream producers.

Oil Above $100 as Middle East Conflict Jolts Global Markets and Boosts Energy Shares

Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt shipping and energy flows, triggering volatility across global markets. Energy producers rallied while airlines, transport firms and consumer companies faced mounting cost pressures. Investors are increasingly rotating into oil majors, defense contractors and commodity-linked equities as the geopolitical risk premium expands and markets adjust to the possibility of prolonged supply disruptions.

Oil Price Volatility Keeps Energy and Airline Stocks on Edge

Crude oil prices swung sharply as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to influence global energy markets. The volatility has raised concerns about renewed inflation pressures while creating diverging prospects for energy producers and transportation companies, forcing investors to reassess sector positioning across oil majors, refiners, airlines, and shipping companies.

Brent Crude Tops $92 as Iran-Strait of Hormuz Crisis Deepens, Oil Stocks Surge

Global oil benchmark Brent crude surged past $92 per barrel on Friday as the widening U.S.-Iran war has effectively halted commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening roughly 20% of global daily oil consumption. Energy stocks are the sole bright spot in an otherwise battered U.S. equity market, with Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and Occidental Petroleum posting strong gains as analysts warn of $100-to-$150 oil scenarios.

Global Markets Join Sell-Off as Geopolitical Risk Drives Energy Costs Higher

International equity markets weakened sharply amid renewed geopolitical tensions and a spike in energy prices, reinforcing global risk aversion. Stocks across Europe and Asia saw broad declines as investors digested heightened conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of supply disruptions. Energy and defense sectors outperformed, while traditional growth and travel sectors lagged amid rising risk premiums and inflation concerns.