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Fed July FOMC Decision Due Wednesday — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Expected, September Hike Risk Keeps Investors on Edge

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day July FOMC meeting Tuesday, with the rate decision set for Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markets are overwhelming pricing in a hold at 3.50%-3.75%, but analysts warn that Warsh's tone on whether September becomes a live hike meeting could unsettle equities already on edge from Alphabet's AI capex scare. Core PCE data for June is due Thursday, with a monthly print above 0.2% seen as reigniting hawkish rate-hike bets.

Gold Recovers 0.95% to $4,090 as Oil Drops 7% — Safe-Haven Demand Fades but Stays Elevated on Ceasefire Skepticism

Gold rose 0.95% to $4,090.57 an ounce on Monday, recovering from nine-month lows as the US-Iran military pause sent oil sharply lower but left safe-haven demand intact amid market skepticism over the ceasefire's durability. Analysts describe the pause as 'tactical rather than genuine,' preventing a sharp gold selloff even as equities rallied. Gold has risen 23.4% year-over-year but remains 27% below its January all-time high of $5,595 amid elevated Fed rate-hike expectations.

Microsoft, Meta Q2 2026 Earnings Due Wednesday — AI Capex Scrutiny Peaks After Alphabet Sinks 8% on Ballooning Spend

Microsoft and Meta Platforms report Q2 2026 earnings Wednesday after the close, the same day as the Fed rate decision, under intense investor scrutiny after Alphabet sank roughly 8% last week on elevated AI capital expenditure and negative free cash flow that spooked the market. Meta previously guided Q2 revenue of $58 billion to $61 billion. Analysts say investors need proof that AI spending is converting into accelerating revenue, or the Mag-7 selloff begun last week will deepen through Thursday's Apple and Amazon reports.

Alphabet Q2 2026 Revenue Hits $119.8B, Up 24%; Google Cloud Accelerates 82% to $24.8B — Free Cash Flow Turns Negative $5.9B on Record $44.9B Capex

Alphabet posted Q2 2026 revenue of $119.8 billion, up 24% year-over-year and well above the $116.9 billion consensus, as Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth and hit $24.8 billion — its fastest expansion rate among major cloud providers. Cloud backlog swelled to $514 billion. The catch: record capital expenditures of $44.9 billion flipped free cash flow to negative $5.9 billion, and full-year capex guidance was raised to $195–$205 billion, triggering an after-hours dip in Nasdaq-100 futures.

Tesla Q2 2026 Revenue Hits Record $28.24B, Up 26% — Operating Margin Collapses to 1.4% as Capex Soars 142% and Free Cash Flow Turns Negative $1.09B

Tesla posted record Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion, up 26% year-over-year and ahead of the $26.4 billion consensus, driven by record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles. The profit picture was the opposite of reassuring: GAAP operating income fell 57% to $398 million, compressing operating margin to 1.4% from 4.1% a year ago. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.53 estimate badly. Capex surged 142% to $5.79 billion, flipping free cash flow to negative $1.09 billion. Shares fell 6% premarket.

AMD Advancing AI 2026: Anthropic Deal Adds 2GW MI450 Deployment, Total Committed Demand Hits 14GW — Helios Rack Priced at $5.25M

AMD's Advancing AI 2026 conference in San Francisco concluded its first day with a landmark announcement: Anthropic will deploy up to 2 gigawatts of MI450 GPUs in AMD Helios rack-scale systems, with the first gigawatt beginning in H1 2027. AMD will make a $5 billion strategic equity investment in Anthropic. Combined with existing 6GW Meta and 6GW OpenAI commitments, AMD's total disclosed committed accelerator demand has reached 14 gigawatts. The Helios rack was priced at $5.25 million per unit.

Brent Crude Rises 2.1% to $96 as Houthi Missiles Strike Saudi Tankers and US Completes 12th Consecutive Night of Iran Strikes

Brent crude rose 2.1% to $96 per barrel Thursday after Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea — marking the first direct strikes on tankers in that waterway — while US forces completed a 12th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets. WTI climbed 1.4% to $88.08. Brent is now up roughly 30% over the past month. Energy stocks, defense contractors, and airline names face sharply divergent outlooks as a second front in the energy-supply disruption opens.

Trump Tariff 10% Global Levy Expires Friday — Section 301 Duties on 60 Countries at 10%–12.5% Set to Replace It, Covering 99% of US Trade

The Trump administration's temporary 10% global import tariff, imposed in February under Section 122 after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA-based tariffs, expires Friday. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer signaled its replacement: Section 301 duties of 10%–12.5% targeting 60 countries on grounds of forced-labor practices, covering an estimated 99% of US trade. Nations in scope include China, the EU, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan, threatening supply chains across tech, apparel, autos, and retail.

Intel Q2 2026 Earnings After Close Today — $14.4B Revenue and $0.21 EPS Expected; 18A Yield and Foundry Commentary Are the Real Story

Intel reports Q2 2026 earnings after the close today, with consensus calling for $14.4 billion in revenue and $0.21 non-GAAP EPS. Options markets are pricing a 13–15% post-earnings move in either direction — well above the historical 12.4% average. The revenue number is largely noise; analysts and investors are focused on 18A manufacturing yield disclosures, foundry customer pipeline commentary, and any confirmed Apple contract details, with the stock down 17% from its 2026 peak but still up 163% year-to-date.