Intel Corporation is set to report second-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on Thursday, with analysts broadly expecting the results to confirm continued recovery in the company's core businesses while the earnings call itself provides the more consequential information: the state of Intel's 18A manufacturing process, the depth of its foundry customer pipeline, and any formal confirmation of the Apple chip manufacturing relationship that has driven much of the stock's extraordinary year-to-date run.
The consensus heading into the print is $14.4 billion in revenue, within the $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion range Intel guided in April when it reported Q1 results, and non-GAAP earnings per share of approximately $0.21, a sharp improvement from a loss of $0.10 in the year-ago period. Adjusted gross margin is expected at around 39%, consistent with the company's guidance. Intel outperformed significantly in Q1 2026, delivering $0.29 in non-GAAP EPS against a consensus of $0.01 and reporting revenue of $13.58 billion, a result that sent the stock up 23.6% in a single session and established the pattern of elevated post-earnings volatility that options traders are now pricing at 13 to 15% for Thursday's report.
The product mix underlying the expected revenue is relatively well understood. Intel's Client Computing Group revenue in Q1 was $7.73 billion, supported by better-than-expected PC demand and market share maintenance against AMD in the notebook segment. Data Center and AI revenue reached $5.05 billion in Q1, up 22% year-over-year, though AMD's data center revenue overtook Intel's for the first time in the first quarter at $5.8 billion, a competitive development that analysts say sets a challenging comparison for Q2. Intel Foundry Services, the external manufacturing business that is the long-term transformation thesis, contributed just $174 million in external revenue in Q1 out of total foundry revenue of $5.42 billion, a figure investors will watch closely for any sequential improvement.
The most consequential disclosures investors expect from the earnings call are not in the financial tables. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan has previously told analysts that formal foundry customer commitments are expected to begin materializing in the second half of 2026, making Thursday's call the first opportunity to confirm whether that timeline is on track or has slipped. Intel's 18A process node has reportedly achieved yields of approximately 85%, up from 65% in the prior quarter according to KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, but separate reporting from industry sources has suggested that profitable yields, the threshold at which production becomes economically viable for external customers at scale, may not arrive until late 2026 or 2027 — a gap between "technical yield" and "commercially viable yield" that management will need to address explicitly.
The Apple relationship remains the most closely watched unconfirmed variable. President Trump's June announcement that Apple agreed to manufacture chips domestically with Intel sent the stock 9 to 10% higher in a single session, but neither company has since issued formal disclosure on contract terms, volumes, chip models, or timelines. The July 23 earnings call is the next credible forum for CEO Tan to convert that narrative into disclosed commercial commitments, and analysts say the stock's ability to hold above $130 depends heavily on whether he does so.
Intel shares entered Thursday trading at approximately $97 to $98, having pulled back roughly 17% from their 2026 highs near $132 reached shortly after the Apple announcement, even as the stock remains up 163% year-to-date, making it the best-performing large-cap semiconductor name in the index over that stretch.