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January Inflation Rises to 2.9% as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Pushed to July

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.9% year-over-year in January 2026, up from December's 2.7%, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core inflation edged higher to 2.7%, complicating the Federal Reserve's path toward its 2% inflation target and prompting money markets to push expectations for the next rate cut from June to July.

January Jobs Report Shows 130K Payroll Gains Amid Critical Benchmark Revisions

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released delayed January employment data showing 130,000 new jobs added, exceeding expectations of 70,000. However, annual benchmark revisions revealed 2025 employment was significantly weaker than previously reported, with total job gains revised down from 584,000 to just 181,000 for the year.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates at 3.50-3.75% as Markets Price in Mid-Year Easing

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its range of 3.50-3.75 percent at its January 2026 meeting, pausing its easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Market participants are now pricing increased probability of rate cuts beginning in April or June as employment data suggests greater labor market cooling than previously recognized.

Market Heads Lower on Wall Street as ASX Set to Open Weak, Bitcoin Slumps

Equity markets showed signs of strain Tuesday as major indices pulled back and Asian markets anticipated a weak session following a sell-off in key tech and AI names. Bitcoin slipped to a multi-month low, reinforcing risk-off sentiment among traders and prompting rotation into defensive assets like precious metals and commodities amid renewed volatility in global benchmarks.

Federal Reserve’s Bowman Signals Readiness to Cut Rates Amid Labor Market Risks

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman emphasized that the central bank should remain prepared to lower interest rates if U.S. labor market conditions deteriorate, highlighting a fragile employment outlook despite ongoing economic expansion. Speaking at a financial outlook forum, Bowman balanced expectations of stable growth with concerns over uneven job market dynamics and persistent inflationary pressures.

Small-Cap Stocks Reach New Highs, Bolstered by Economic Optimism

Small-cap equities, as measured by the Russell 2000, climbed to fresh highs, outperforming major indexes as institutional investors rotated toward value and cyclicals amid positive economic data and strong earnings. The rhythm of sector leadership suggests investors are seeking diversified exposures beyond mega-cap technology names as 2026 unfolds.