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Trump's 15% Global Tariff Set to Take Full Effect This Week, Bessent Signals Rollback Within Five Months

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Thursday that President Trump's revised 15% global tariff, enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 following the Supreme Court's invalidation of IEEPA-based duties, will take full effect this week, though Bessent expressed confidence the rates would revert to prior levels within five months as trade authorities complete sector-specific assessments.

Costco, Kroger, and Marvell Technology Headline Earnings Thursday as Consumer and Chip Spending Face Scrutiny

Investors will receive critical data points on consumer spending resilience and semiconductor demand Thursday as retail giants Costco and Kroger, along with AI chip supplier Marvell Technology, publish quarterly results against a backdrop of rising oil prices, a freshly enacted 15% global tariff, and persistent questions about whether household purchasing power is beginning to crack.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

Target Upgraded to Outperform by Telsey as Retailer Shows Early Signs of Sales Recovery

Shares of Target Corporation rose for a second consecutive session Wednesday after Telsey Advisory Group upgraded the retailer to Outperform from Market Perform, citing confidence in the company's strategy to recapture its merchandising identity and leverage AI across store operations. The upgrade follows a Tuesday earnings report in which CEO Michael Fiddelke said Target is "out of the gates strong" in 2026 after reporting a February sales increase that marked the company's first monthly gain in several quarters.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-Israeli Strikes Deepen, Sending Oil to Eight-Month Highs

The Islamic Republic declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all maritime traffic on Tuesday as U.S. and Israeli forces launched a fourth consecutive day of strikes, pushing Brent crude above $84 per barrel. The closure of the world's most critical oil chokepoint — through which roughly a third of global seaborne crude exports pass — has ignited fears of a prolonged supply shock and rattled equity markets worldwide.

Target Beats Q4 Earnings Estimates as Holiday Rebound Fuels Optimism; Best Buy Posts Mixed Results

Target Corporation reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $2.44 per share, handily topping Wall Street's $2.16 consensus, as the retailer pointed to improved sales trends in January as an encouraging milestone on its path to recovery. Best Buy posted a mixed quarter — beating on earnings per share but missing revenue estimates — while raising its quarterly dividend for the thirteenth consecutive year.

Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume With No Deal, Lifting Oil While Markets Brace for Geopolitical Risk

Diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program concluded in Geneva without a resolution, with technical-level discussions now scheduled to resume in Vienna next week. While the continuation of negotiations eased the most acute fears of an imminent military confrontation, analysts at Raymond James warned that a U.S. military operation against Iran remains likely at this stage, keeping crude oil elevated and energy stocks in focus.

Gold Surges Past $5,044 as U.S. Military Strikes on Iran Seen as Imminent, Oil Markets on Edge

Gold prices surged to $5,044 per ounce on Friday as reports circulated that U.S. national security officials have briefed President Trump that the military is prepared for potential strikes on Iran, sending safe-haven assets sharply higher and pushing silver above $80 per ounce, while defense stocks and energy equities rallied on the prospect of broader Middle East conflict.