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Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Year-End Target to 5,800, Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 40%

Goldman Sachs released a sweeping bearish revision to its U.S. equity outlook on Sunday, cutting its year-end S&P 500 target from 6,500 to 5,800 and raising its 12-month recession probability to 40%, citing a historically rare confluence of stagflationary macro forces, geopolitical tail risk, and Federal Reserve policy error, sending S&P 500 futures sharply lower in Sunday evening trading.

Defense Contractors Surge as Senate Fast-Tracks $950 Billion Emergency Military Authorization on 78-22 Bipartisan Vote

The U.S. Senate passed a $950 billion emergency military authorization package on a bipartisan 78-22 vote late Friday, shocking defense industry analysts who had expected months of procedural delays, sending Lockheed Martin up 4.2%, RTX up 3.8%, and Northrop Grumman up 3.1% in after-hours trading in what analysts say could be the largest annual defense spending increase in inflation-adjusted terms since the post-9/11 buildup.

S&P 500 Breaks 200-Day Moving Average, Posts Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Pentagon Deploys Marines and Stagflation Fears Mount

The S&P 500 broke decisively below its 200-day moving average on Friday, closing at approximately 6,606 and recording its fourth consecutive weekly decline — the longest such losing streak in a year — as the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is deploying three additional warships and thousands of Marines to the Middle East, sending bond yields higher and traders pricing in a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October. Energy stocks were the sole bright spot, while real estate, utilities, and technology led broad sector declines.

Pentagon Sends USS Boxer and 2,500 More Marines to Persian Gulf as Iran Escalation Deepens; Oil Resumes Climb

The Pentagon on Friday approved the deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious ready group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit — comprising roughly 2,500 Marines and three additional warships — to U.S. Central Command, marking the second major marine deployment in a week and bringing total American personnel in the Middle East to approximately 50,000. The development, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, accelerated an already weak stock market selloff and pushed Brent crude back toward $110 as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions showed no signs of easing.

Markets Price 50% Chance of Fed Rate Hike by October as Powell's 'Hawkish Hold' Reverberates Through Risk Assets

Bond futures markets are pricing a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by October 2026, a dramatic and rapid shift from the multiple rate cuts that were widely expected just three months ago, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference this week signaled that inflation progress has stalled and the Iran war's economic consequences will not meaningfully alter the central bank's calculus. The repricing has sent Treasury yields higher, crushed gold and growth stocks, and introduced the specter of stagflation across Wall Street's macro outlook.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%, Flags Sticky Inflation and Iran War Uncertainty; Markets Sell Off on Powell's Hawkish Tone

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, while its updated dot plot showed only one rate cut projected for all of 2026 and Chair Jerome Powell delivered a more hawkish-than-expected press conference that rattled markets. The Dow fell 768 points to its lowest close since November, as investors processed Powell's warning that higher energy prices could reignite inflation and that the Fed had 'not made as much progress on inflation as hoped.'

Accenture Posts Record $22.1B Bookings and Raises Full-Year Guidance as Enterprise AI Spending Defies Macro Headwinds

Accenture reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $18.0 billion — beating estimates — on Thursday morning, while announcing record new bookings of $22.1 billion and raising its full-year revenue and earnings guidance. The results, which included 41 clients with quarterly bookings above $100 million, provide strong confirmation that enterprise demand for AI-driven consulting, technology transformation, and digital services remains robust even as the broader macroeconomic backdrop grows cloudier.

Alibaba Reports Q3 Fiscal 2026 Results: Revenue Misses Estimates but Cloud and AI Growth Accelerate Ahead of Key Catalyst Period

Alibaba reported its December quarter fiscal 2026 results Thursday before the U.S. market open, posting earnings per share of $6.96 — missing the $11.88 consensus estimate — alongside revenue that fell short of expectations. However, the company's Alibaba Cloud and AI services divisions showed continued acceleration, and investors are closely watching for guidance on the company's capital allocation plans and the domestic Chinese economic environment heading into the new fiscal year.

Hot PPI Data Rattles Wall Street as Wholesale Inflation Surges 0.7% in February, Doubling Expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Producer Price Index jumped 0.7% in February — more than double the 0.3% consensus estimate — pushing annual wholesale inflation to 3.4%, its highest level in a year. The hotter-than-expected reading, driven by a 48.9% spike in vegetable prices and broad goods inflation of 1.1%, arrived hours before the Federal Reserve's rate decision and reignited stagflation fears across equity and bond markets.