Keyword → XLF

S&P 500 Breaks 200-Day Moving Average, Posts Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Pentagon Deploys Marines and Stagflation Fears Mount

The S&P 500 broke decisively below its 200-day moving average on Friday, closing at approximately 6,606 and recording its fourth consecutive weekly decline — the longest such losing streak in a year — as the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is deploying three additional warships and thousands of Marines to the Middle East, sending bond yields higher and traders pricing in a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October. Energy stocks were the sole bright spot, while real estate, utilities, and technology led broad sector declines.

Markets Price 50% Chance of Fed Rate Hike by October as Powell's 'Hawkish Hold' Reverberates Through Risk Assets

Bond futures markets are pricing a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by October 2026, a dramatic and rapid shift from the multiple rate cuts that were widely expected just three months ago, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference this week signaled that inflation progress has stalled and the Iran war's economic consequences will not meaningfully alter the central bank's calculus. The repricing has sent Treasury yields higher, crushed gold and growth stocks, and introduced the specter of stagflation across Wall Street's macro outlook.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%, Flags Sticky Inflation and Iran War Uncertainty; Markets Sell Off on Powell's Hawkish Tone

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, while its updated dot plot showed only one rate cut projected for all of 2026 and Chair Jerome Powell delivered a more hawkish-than-expected press conference that rattled markets. The Dow fell 768 points to its lowest close since November, as investors processed Powell's warning that higher energy prices could reignite inflation and that the Fed had 'not made as much progress on inflation as hoped.'

FOMC Opens Two-Day Meeting as Fed Faces Stagflation Trap; Rate Hold Certain But Dot Plot Signals Split on 2026 Path

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day March 2026 policy meeting on Tuesday with a near-unanimous market expectation of a rate hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but attention is riveted on Wednesday's Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot — which is expected to reveal significant internal disagreement about the appropriate policy path given a 40%-plus oil price surge, a slowing economy, and sticky above-3% inflation. The meeting is also Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair before the Senate confirmation of nominated successor Kevin Warsh.

Fed Faces Stagflation Dilemma as Energy Shock Threatens to Reaccelerate CPI Ahead of March 18 Decision

With the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 FOMC meeting days away, policymakers face a sharpening stagflation dilemma: February CPI held steady at 2.4% annually, but surging oil prices threaten to reaccelerate headline inflation in March and beyond. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%, though the energy shock could delay any 2026 rate cuts further into the year.

February Jobs Report Shocks Markets: Payrolls Shed 92,000, Unemployment Rises to 4.4%

The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, far worse than the consensus estimate for a gain of 50,000 to 60,000 and marking the third payroll contraction in five months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, while average hourly earnings surprised to the upside, presenting the Federal Reserve with a stagflationary dilemma at the worst possible moment.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

Safe Harbor Financial Reports 29% Growth in Emerging Cannabis Banking

Safe Harbor Financial today announced robust year-over-year growth of 29% in its emerging U.S. cannabis banking segment, driven by more than 100 new customer accounts. The expansion highlights ongoing opportunities in niche financial services and the broader cannabis sector as regulatory and market conditions evolve.

Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.