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U.S. Fourth-Quarter GDP Slumps to 1.4%, Core PCE Inflation Climbs to 3% in Stagflation-Lite Warning

The U.S. economy expanded at a meager annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, sharply missing consensus expectations of 2.8% to 3%, while the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, accelerated to 3.0% — a combination that has investors bracing for a prolonged pause in rate cuts and reigniting fears of a stagflationary environment heading into 2026.

Walmart Beats Q4 Estimates but Soft Full-Year Guidance Rattles Investors

Walmart delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and revenue on Thursday, fueled by robust e-commerce growth and expanding advertising revenue, but its full-year earnings outlook of $2.75 to $2.85 per share fell short of Wall Street's consensus of $2.96, sending shares modestly lower in premarket trading and raising questions about the pace of margin expansion under its new chief executive.

U.S. Stocks Rally Led by Tech as Major Indexes Close Higher

U.S. stock markets closed higher Wednesday with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq all posting gains as Nvidia surged following news of a major AI chip partnership. Investors balanced optimism over tech leadership against stronger economic data and rising Treasury yields in a session that reflected both risk appetite and macro caution.

Market Risks Rise as Investor Optimism Nears Multi-Year Highs

Investor sentiment has surged to levels not seen in years, raising concerns among strategists that markets may be overextended and vulnerable to correction. With broad bullishness persisting and allocations heavily tilted toward equities, analysts advise selectivity in stock picking as risks tied to inflation and rising yields intensify.

Tax Foundation Report Confirms Tariffs as Largest Tax Hike Since 1993, Weighing on 2026 Outlook

A comprehensive analysis released today by the Tax Foundation reveals that the cumulative impact of recent US tariffs represents the largest tax increase as a share of GDP in over three decades. The report estimates an average annual burden of $1,300 per US household in 2026, with businesses and consumers bearing nearly 90% of the costs. This structural drag is increasingly reflected in the downward revision of earnings guidance across the industrial, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors.

Walmart Fourth Quarter Earnings Tomorrow to Provide Critical Read on U.S. Consumer Resilience

Walmart will report fiscal fourth quarter 2026 results before market open Thursday, with analysts forecasting adjusted EPS of $0.73 and revenue between $188.6-$190.5 billion. The report represents a pivotal test for the $1 trillion retailer following a 43-day government shutdown and carries outsized importance as a barometer of American consumer health amid a K-shaped recovery that has seen Walmart capture 75% of market share gains from households earning over $100,000.

Tariff Burden on U.S. Households Hits $1,300 as Corporate Guidance Flags Mounting Trade Policy Headwinds

Tax Foundation analysis confirms that President Trump's cumulative tariff regime now represents the largest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993, imposing an average annual burden of $1,300 per household in 2026. With Goldman Sachs estimating American companies and consumers bear over three-quarters of tariff costs, earnings guidance across industrials, consumer discretionary, and healthcare is increasingly reflecting this structural drag on margins and consumer demand.

Stock Futures Creep Higher as Investors Digest Strong Labor Market, Mixed Data Signals

Stock futures modestly rose as traders weighed stronger-than-expected labor data against persistent technology sector weakness and renewed discussions over monetary policy. With unemployment slightly lower than forecast and weekly jobless claims subdued, markets are recalibrating expectations for Federal Reserve action in coming months.

U.S. Stocks Drift Near Records as Corporate Earnings Spur Mixed Market Signals

U.S. equity benchmarks hovered near all-time highs on Tuesday, supported by strong gains in select corporate earnings and weak retail sales data, prompting speculation on future rate policy. While the Dow hit new records, mixed sector results highlighted investor caution amid early earnings reactions.