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Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Odds Reach 75% for September 2026 — Higher Yields Pressure Growth Valuations

Markets are increasingly pricing in another Federal Reserve rate increase, with futures implying roughly a 75% probability of a move by September. Rising Treasury yields have pressured long-duration growth stocks and increased volatility across technology sectors. Investors are reassessing valuation assumptions while monitoring inflation data and central bank commentary. The evolving rate outlook could become a dominant driver of equity performance during the remainder of the summer.

Alphabet Dips 0.4% to $362.26 as Gemini Co-Lead Noam Shazeer Departs for OpenAI — Google Once Paid $2.7B to Bring Him Back

Alphabet shares slipped 0.4% to $362.26 in premarket trading after Noam Shazeer, the Gemini AI co-lead credited with closing the gap on ChatGPT, announced he is leaving Google to join rival OpenAI. Google reportedly paid $2.7 billion less than two years ago to bring Shazeer and his Character.AI team back into the fold, making his exit a fresh test of the company's ability to retain top AI talent. The move comes as Alphabet raised its planned equity sales to $84.75 billion.

Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Jabil Posts $3.16 Core EPS in Q3 Fiscal 2026, Tops $3.10 Estimate — Raises FY26 Outlook on AI Infrastructure Surge

Jabil posted fiscal third-quarter 2026 core earnings of $3.16 per share on revenue of $8.8 billion, topping Wall Street estimates of roughly $3.10 per share and $8.61 billion. The contract manufacturer raised its fourth-quarter outlook to as much as $4.20 in core EPS, citing surging AI infrastructure demand alongside better-than-expected results in automotive and connected living. CEO Mike Dastoor said the company's diversified model continues to deliver margin expansion and strong free cash flow heading into fiscal 2027.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Fox Corp Buys Roku for $22 Billion — Roku Shares Rise 2.8% While Fox Slides 9.5% on Deal Terms

Fox Corporation is acquiring streaming platform Roku in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at approximately $22 billion, or about $160 per Roku share. Roku shares rose roughly 2.8% to $147.74 in premarket trading, while Fox shares dropped about 9.5% to $53.33 as investors weighed the dilution from the deal. The combination gives Fox access to Roku's streaming platform, first-party viewer data, and over 100 million global households.

Fed Faces June 17 FOMC Decision With 89% Odds of No Change — 4.2% CPI Keeps Cut Hopes on Ice

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meets June 16-17, with prediction markets assigning roughly 89% to 99% odds that the federal funds rate stays unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment near 4.3% has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors are watching closely for any shift in the Fed's policy bias under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

U.S. Navy Seizes Iranian Cargo Ship Touska, Tehran Shuts Hormuz Again; Ceasefire Talks Collapse as Oil Surges 7%

The USS Spruance fired on and seized the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska in the Gulf of Oman after it defied U.S. blockade warnings over six hours, triggering Iran to reimpose full closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. Tehran's foreign ministry announced Monday it has no plans to attend a second round of Islamabad peace talks, sending WTI crude surging 7% above $89 and U.S. equity futures falling sharply as the fragile ceasefire — set to expire Wednesday — appears on the brink of collapse.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.