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May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% — Highest Since April 2023 With Core at 3.4%, Above 3.3% Forecast, Cementing September Fed Rate Hike as Base Case

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023, driven by energy-cost pass-through from the Iran war, matching headline consensus but printing core PCE at 3.4% — a tick above the 3.3% expected. Monthly headline PCE rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Markets moved to price a September Federal Reserve rate hike as base case, though analysts broadly viewed May as likely the inflation peak given the sharp subsequent decline in oil prices following Iran ceasefire progress.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

All 32 Banks Pass 2026 Fed Stress Test as JPMorgan Unveils $50B Buyback and 10% Dividend Hike — Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley Follow With Double-Digit Increases

All 32 U.S. banks passed the Federal Reserve's 2026 annual stress test, absorbing $708 billion in projected losses while maintaining capital ratios above minimums. JPMorgan Chase raised its quarterly dividend 10% to $1.65 per share and authorized a new $50 billion buyback effective July 1. Goldman Sachs lifted its dividend 11% to $5 per share, Wells Fargo raised its payout 11% to $0.50, and Morgan Stanley boosted its dividend 15% to $1.15 per share while reauthorizing a $20 billion repurchase program.

Federal Reserve Rate-Hike Odds Reach 75% for September 2026 — Higher Yields Pressure Growth Valuations

Markets are increasingly pricing in another Federal Reserve rate increase, with futures implying roughly a 75% probability of a move by September. Rising Treasury yields have pressured long-duration growth stocks and increased volatility across technology sectors. Investors are reassessing valuation assumptions while monitoring inflation data and central bank commentary. The evolving rate outlook could become a dominant driver of equity performance during the remainder of the summer.

Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Fed Faces June 17 FOMC Decision With 89% Odds of No Change — 4.2% CPI Keeps Cut Hopes on Ice

The Federal Reserve's FOMC meets June 16-17, with prediction markets assigning roughly 89% to 99% odds that the federal funds rate stays unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment near 4.3% has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts. Investors are watching closely for any shift in the Fed's policy bias under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

Retail Sales, Warsh Hearing, and Expiring Ceasefire: The Three Macro Events That Will Define This Week's Market Direction

Beyond the earnings deluge, three macro catalysts will determine whether the stock market's historic April rally can hold or unravel this week: Tuesday's retail sales data for March, expected at plus 1.4% month-over-month and closely watched as a consumer health indicator; Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing also Tuesday; and the Wednesday expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, which now appears at serious risk of collapse following the weekend ship seizure and Hormuz re-closure.