Keyword → TLT

February PCE Inflation Eases to 2.3% — Core Holds at 2.6%, Fed Stays Patient

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index Friday, showing headline PCE inflation eased to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.5% in January while core PCE held steady at 2.6%. Both readings landed in line with consensus, reinforcing a Federal Reserve on hold through mid-year as incoming auto tariff risks threaten to stall the final mile of disinflation.

Powell Shocks Markets With Hawkish Peterson Institute Speech — Rate Hike Odds Surge to 68%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a sharply hawkish address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, signaling the Fed retains all tools to combat inflation. Rate hike odds for October surged to 68 percent as the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent and 2-year Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to 4.92 percent.

Oil Holds Above $118 as Pentagon Confirms Further Gulf Deployments; S&P 500 Futures Signal Cautious Open

Crude oil held firm above $118 per barrel in early Tuesday trading as the Pentagon confirmed additional naval deployments to the Persian Gulf, while S&P 500 futures pointed to a cautious open after Monday's session failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average, leaving investors weighing whether the worst of the selloff is priced in or whether further deterioration lies ahead.

Powell Speech Preview: Markets Brace for Wednesday's Peterson Institute Address as Rate Hike Odds Hit 55%

With rate hike odds for October climbing to 55% following Tuesday's dire consumer confidence data, all eyes are turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Wednesday address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where markets are hoping for clarity on whether the Fed will tolerate a growth slowdown to anchor inflation expectations or signal any willingness to pause its hawkish stance.

Wall Street Braces for Pivotal Week as Crude Oil Nears $120, Fed Speakers and Middle East Risk Dominate Agenda

Wall Street opens a critical trading week facing a convergence of macro risks that analysts say could determine whether the S&P 500's month-long slide deepens into a full bear market or stabilizes near key technical support, with crude oil hovering at $118 per barrel, Fed Chair Powell scheduled to speak Wednesday, and U.S. military forces expanding their presence in the Persian Gulf.

Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Year-End Target to 5,800, Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 40%

Goldman Sachs released a sweeping bearish revision to its U.S. equity outlook on Sunday, cutting its year-end S&P 500 target from 6,500 to 5,800 and raising its 12-month recession probability to 40%, citing a historically rare confluence of stagflationary macro forces, geopolitical tail risk, and Federal Reserve policy error, sending S&P 500 futures sharply lower in Sunday evening trading.

Gold Breaks $3,200 Milestone for First Time in History as Stagflation Fears and Safe-Haven Demand Converge

Gold surged past the historic $3,200 per troy ounce level for the first time on Friday, closing at $3,218 on the COMEX spot market as stagflation fears, geopolitical risk, and central bank buying drove the precious metal to another all-time record, with gold mining stocks amplifying the move and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF surging more than 5% on the session.

Defense Contractors Surge as Senate Fast-Tracks $950 Billion Emergency Military Authorization on 78-22 Bipartisan Vote

The U.S. Senate passed a $950 billion emergency military authorization package on a bipartisan 78-22 vote late Friday, shocking defense industry analysts who had expected months of procedural delays, sending Lockheed Martin up 4.2%, RTX up 3.8%, and Northrop Grumman up 3.1% in after-hours trading in what analysts say could be the largest annual defense spending increase in inflation-adjusted terms since the post-9/11 buildup.

S&P 500 Breaks 200-Day Moving Average, Posts Fourth Straight Weekly Loss as Pentagon Deploys Marines and Stagflation Fears Mount

The S&P 500 broke decisively below its 200-day moving average on Friday, closing at approximately 6,606 and recording its fourth consecutive weekly decline — the longest such losing streak in a year — as the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is deploying three additional warships and thousands of Marines to the Middle East, sending bond yields higher and traders pricing in a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by October. Energy stocks were the sole bright spot, while real estate, utilities, and technology led broad sector declines.