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One Year After Liberation Day — S&P 500 Down 7% YTD but Markets Have Defied the Crash Predictions

Wednesday marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump's April 2, 2025 Liberation Day tariff announcement, and despite a rocky 12 months that saw the Supreme Court strike down IEEPA tariffs and a replacement 15% global baseline imposed, the S&P 500 has not crashed — but it has underperformed dramatically, down 7% year-to-date as global investors reassess American exceptionalism.

February Durable Goods Orders Miss at -1.8% — Manufacturing Contraction Deepens Recession Watch

Orders for durable manufactured goods fell 1.8 percent in February 2026, worse than the expected 0.5 percent decline, while the critical non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft reading dropped 1.1 percent. The miss adds to a growing body of deteriorating economic data and pushed JPMorgan's U.S. recession probability estimate to 40 percent for 2026.

Oil Holds Above $118 as Pentagon Confirms Further Gulf Deployments; S&P 500 Futures Signal Cautious Open

Crude oil held firm above $118 per barrel in early Tuesday trading as the Pentagon confirmed additional naval deployments to the Persian Gulf, while S&P 500 futures pointed to a cautious open after Monday's session failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average, leaving investors weighing whether the worst of the selloff is priced in or whether further deterioration lies ahead.

Goldman Sachs Slashes S&P 500 Year-End Target to 5,800, Raises U.S. Recession Probability to 40%

Goldman Sachs released a sweeping bearish revision to its U.S. equity outlook on Sunday, cutting its year-end S&P 500 target from 6,500 to 5,800 and raising its 12-month recession probability to 40%, citing a historically rare confluence of stagflationary macro forces, geopolitical tail risk, and Federal Reserve policy error, sending S&P 500 futures sharply lower in Sunday evening trading.

Defense Contractors Surge as Senate Fast-Tracks $950 Billion Emergency Military Authorization on 78-22 Bipartisan Vote

The U.S. Senate passed a $950 billion emergency military authorization package on a bipartisan 78-22 vote late Friday, shocking defense industry analysts who had expected months of procedural delays, sending Lockheed Martin up 4.2%, RTX up 3.8%, and Northrop Grumman up 3.1% in after-hours trading in what analysts say could be the largest annual defense spending increase in inflation-adjusted terms since the post-9/11 buildup.

Pentagon Sends USS Boxer and 2,500 More Marines to Persian Gulf as Iran Escalation Deepens; Oil Resumes Climb

The Pentagon on Friday approved the deployment of the USS Boxer amphibious ready group and the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit — comprising roughly 2,500 Marines and three additional warships — to U.S. Central Command, marking the second major marine deployment in a week and bringing total American personnel in the Middle East to approximately 50,000. The development, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, accelerated an already weak stock market selloff and pushed Brent crude back toward $110 as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions showed no signs of easing.

Boeing Under Fresh Pressure as 737 MAX Wiring Defect Stalls Q1 Deliveries; Shares Lag Broader Market Recovery

Boeing shares lagged the broader market Wednesday as the company continued to grapple with a 737 MAX delivery pause tied to scratched wiring caused by a machining error discovered during production inspections. The defect, disclosed on March 10, has halted all MAX deliveries since March 5 — ending what had been the strongest February delivery performance since 2018 — and raises renewed questions about manufacturing quality control just as Boeing's recovery appeared to be gaining momentum.

Stock Futures Rise as Investors Rotate Toward Energy and Defense

U.S. stock futures moved higher Monday despite geopolitical tensions, as investors rotated capital toward energy producers and defense contractors. The shift reflects growing expectations that prolonged geopolitical risk could sustain elevated oil prices and drive increased government defense spending. Market strategists say the rotation highlights a broader repositioning across global portfolios as investors seek sectors with resilient earnings during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Oil Above $100 as Middle East Conflict Jolts Global Markets and Boosts Energy Shares

Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt shipping and energy flows, triggering volatility across global markets. Energy producers rallied while airlines, transport firms and consumer companies faced mounting cost pressures. Investors are increasingly rotating into oil majors, defense contractors and commodity-linked equities as the geopolitical risk premium expands and markets adjust to the possibility of prolonged supply disruptions.