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Trump Declares 2-Week Iran Ceasefire: WTI Oil Crashes 15% to $95.75, Airlines Surge as Markets Whipsaw

President Trump declared a 2-week suspension of US military operations against Iran on April 8, 2026, following a 10-point peace proposal brokered through Pakistani intermediaries. WTI crude oil immediately crashed 15% from $112 to $95.75 per barrel while US equity index futures initially surged 3% before fading to flat. Airlines led all sectors, with United Airlines surging 13.3% and Delta reporting a Q1 2026 earnings beat on the same morning.

Trump's Iran Ultimatum Deadline Arrives: Markets Brace for Binary Outcome as Oil Tops $112

President Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — or face destruction of its civilian infrastructure — arrived Tuesday as global markets churned under binary event risk. WTI crude traded above $112 per barrel while equities oscillated in a narrow range, with the VIX surging nearly 6% to 25.30. A Pakistani-mediated 45-day ceasefire framework known as the Islamabad Accord has emerged from diplomatic back-channels, though sources indicate a deal before the hard deadline remained unlikely.

Energy Crisis Deepens: Hormuz Blockade Removes Nearly One Billion Barrels From Global Supply as Gasoline Hits $4.11

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed nearly one billion barrels of oil equivalent from global supply according to TD Securities estimates, as WTI crude climbed to $112.41 per barrel Tuesday. National average gasoline prices reached $4.11 per gallon — 38% above pre-war levels — while the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas warned a sustained closure could shave 2.9% from quarterly U.S. GDP. Goldman Sachs forecasts WTI could reach $130 if the Strait remains shut through month-end.

Wells Fargo Abandons All 2026 Fed Rate Cut Forecasts as Iran War Locks In Inflation; March CPI Due Friday

Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced Monday it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at any point in 2026, abandoning its prior forecast of two cuts and citing oil-driven inflation from the Iran war and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The announcement sets up Friday's March CPI report as a high-stakes macro event, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projecting headline inflation surging from 2.4% to 3.16% year-over-year as the first full energy shock data is captured.

Oil Rockets 10% as President Trump Issues Direct Military Warning to Iran — WTI Hits $110 Per Barrel

WTI crude futures surged more than 10% to $110.21 per barrel Thursday after President Trump issued a direct public warning of military action against Iran within two to three weeks, sending energy stocks sharply higher and triggering a wave of defensive positioning across airlines, shipping companies, and consumer-facing businesses with significant fuel-cost exposure.

Q1 2026 Earnings Season Kicks Off — JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Set to Report as Banks Navigate Tariff and Rate Uncertainty

Q1 2026 earnings season officially begins this week with major banks leading the charge, and Friday's blockbuster March jobs report — 178,000 payrolls added against a 51,000 consensus — has substantially improved the setup for financial sector results, even as the broader market navigates 15% global tariffs, $110 oil, and Moody's 49% recession probability estimate.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 57.0 — Tariff Fears Push Inflation Expectations to 5.0%

The University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment index dropped to 57.0, below the preliminary reading of 57.9 and the lowest since September 2025, as American households grew increasingly anxious about the impact of tariff-driven price increases on their finances. One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.0%, the highest reading since 2022, adding a stagflationary wrinkle to Friday's PCE data.

OPEC+ Reaffirms Output Cuts Through Q2 2026, Keeping Oil Markets Tight

OPEC+ ministers reaffirmed their collective output reduction strategy through the end of Q2 2026, citing persistent demand uncertainty from China and the potential impact of U.S. tariff policy on global trade flows. Brent crude held above $76 per barrel following the announcement, supporting energy sector equities across integrated majors and upstream producers.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 205,000, Signaling Continued Labor Market Strength

Initial unemployment claims dropped to 205,000 for the week ending March 21, the lowest reading since November 2025 and well below economists' forecasts of 218,000. The data reinforces a robust labor market that has supported consumer spending and corporate earnings even as the Federal Reserve maintains elevated interest rates.