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Private Credit Giants Sink as Fed Rate Outlook Pressures Banks and Alternative Asset Managers

Major U.S. banks and private credit firms extended their 2026 declines Tuesday as elevated Federal Reserve rate expectations weighed on loan demand and deal activity. Ares Management, Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo Global Management have shed between 26% and 33% year-to-date, as recession fears and a surge in AI-driven white-collar job displacement cloud the private credit landscape.

BlackRock Limits Withdrawals From $26 Billion Private Credit Fund Amid Redemption Surge

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, announced Friday that it has capped redemptions from its flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investor withdrawal requests surged to approximately $1.2 billion in the first quarter — the latest and most prominent casualty in a mounting liquidity crisis gripping the $1.8 trillion private credit industry. Shares of BlackRock fell more than 7% on the news.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

Federal Reserve Minutes Expected to Reveal Dovish Shift as Markets Price Two Rate Cuts in 2026

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its January 16-17 policy meeting at 2 p.m. ET today, with investors seeking insights into policymakers' thinking after they held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The document is expected to detail how officials weigh persistent inflation against signs of labor market stabilization, as markets now price in more than two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end following last week's benign CPI data.