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Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Down to 0.7% as Stagflation Risk Mounts Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to just 0.7% on Friday, down sharply from the prior estimate of 1.4% and well below Wall Street's 1.5% consensus forecast. Paired with January core PCE inflation running at 3.1%, the data sharply raises stagflation concerns just days before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, where rate cuts now appear increasingly unlikely.

Fed Rate Cut Timeline Pushed to September as Oil Shock Complicates Monetary Policy Calculus

Rising oil prices and a deteriorating labor market have created a near-impossible policy environment for the Federal Reserve, with traders now pricing the next rate cut no earlier than September. The combination of a 92,000-job loss in February and oil prices above $100 per barrel has revived fears of stagflation not seen since the early 1980s, leaving policymakers with few clean options.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

Iran Conflict Pushes U.S. Treasury Yields Higher, Challenging Safe-Haven Narrative

Escalating conflict involving U.S. and allied forces in Iran has paradoxically lifted U.S. Treasury yields as investors reassess safe-haven strategies and inflation expectations. Rather than a typical flight into bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4%, reflecting market anxiety over sustained energy price pressures and the potential for inflation to derail expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Dow Jones Plunges Over 900 Points as Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets

U.S. equity markets experienced a dramatic sell-off today as escalating conflict in the Middle East sent shockwaves through global financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points, while major indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ also posted sharp losses, fueled in part by a surge in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.

Global Markets Join Sell-Off as Geopolitical Risk Drives Energy Costs Higher

International equity markets weakened sharply amid renewed geopolitical tensions and a spike in energy prices, reinforcing global risk aversion. Stocks across Europe and Asia saw broad declines as investors digested heightened conflict in the Middle East and the possibility of supply disruptions. Energy and defense sectors outperformed, while traditional growth and travel sectors lagged amid rising risk premiums and inflation concerns.

HSBC Strategists Slash U.S. Equity Overweight, Favor Global Markets

HSBC’s global strategists sharply reduced their overweight position in U.S. equities, reallocating toward emerging markets and European stocks as economic momentum abroad appears stronger. The shift reflects concerns about U.S. equity valuations and changing growth prospects, signaling cross-border flow impacts for market participants adjusting risk exposures.

U.S. Primary Credit Market Competition Hits Record High as Bond Demand Surges

A Barclays report published today shows competition in the U.S. primary credit market reaching unprecedented levels, driven by strong investor demand for corporate bonds. Issuance in both investment-grade and high-yield sectors saw marked increases in allocations, reflecting surging investor interest and structural shifts. Robust demand is pushing trading activity higher across large deals, with implications for credit spreads and yield curves as investors reprice risk in fixed income markets.