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Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%; Dot Plot and Powell Press Conference in Focus as Iran War Complicates Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, with 99% market certainty baked into futures pricing. The real event for investors is the quarterly dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where the central bank must reconcile surging wholesale inflation, energy prices above $100, and a softening labor market — an increasingly stagflationary combination.

Private Credit Market Faces Liquidity Crisis as Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Blackstone Cap Fund Redemptions

Wall Street's private credit market is under intensifying pressure after Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Blackstone all capped investor withdrawals from flagship funds following a surge in redemption requests that far exceeded contractual limits. The wave of exits, driven by concerns over AI-related loan deterioration and rising rates, has raised systemic questions about liquidity in the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry.

BlackRock Limits Withdrawals From $26 Billion Private Credit Fund Amid Redemption Surge

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, announced Friday that it has capped redemptions from its flagship HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investor withdrawal requests surged to approximately $1.2 billion in the first quarter — the latest and most prominent casualty in a mounting liquidity crisis gripping the $1.8 trillion private credit industry. Shares of BlackRock fell more than 7% on the news.

Federal Reserve Minutes Expected to Reveal Dovish Shift as Markets Price Two Rate Cuts in 2026

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its January 16-17 policy meeting at 2 p.m. ET today, with investors seeking insights into policymakers' thinking after they held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. The document is expected to detail how officials weigh persistent inflation against signs of labor market stabilization, as markets now price in more than two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end following last week's benign CPI data.

Trump Administration Orders Pentagon to Purchase Coal-Fired Electricity in Historic Energy Reversal

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on February 11, 2026, directing the Department of Defense to enter long-term electricity contracts with coal-fired power plants, marking the administration's most aggressive attempt to revive the declining coal industry. The move, coupled with $175 million in Department of Energy funding for coal plant upgrades, could provide financial lifelines to dozens of facilities scheduled for retirement.