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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Proposes 20% Transit Fee on All Cargo — Brent Crude Jumps 9.5% to $83

President Trump announced the United States will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all non-Iranian cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effective Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Brent crude jumped 9.5% to above $83 per barrel, its biggest single-day gain since May 2020, while WTI settled near $78. The move follows a third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and effectively ends the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June.

JPMorgan Q2 2026 EPS Beats at $6.14 vs. $5.85 Estimate; Revenue Hits $58.02B — Wells Fargo Posts $2.00 EPS on $1.72 Forecast

JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 EPS of $6.14 against the $5.85 LSEG consensus and revenue of $58.02 billion, towering above the $50.19 billion estimate in one of the company's largest-ever quarterly beats. Wells Fargo matched with $2.00 EPS versus the $1.72 estimate. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup were still pending before the open. Combined, the five banks hold more than $13 trillion in assets and set the tone for an earnings season where S&P 500 profits are expected to grow 23.9% in Q2.

Brent Crude Rises 4% to $78.82 — US-Iran Weekend Airstrikes Reopen Strait of Hormuz Dispute and Shatter June Peace Deal

Brent crude rose more than 4% to touch $78.82 a barrel after US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes over the weekend, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and US Central Command asserting it remains open. The renewed conflict has all but shattered the June memorandum of understanding, with just six vessels tracked crossing the strait in a 12-hour window versus a pre-crisis baseline of 18 to 22 daily crossings. Energy stocks and airline equities face sharply divergent outlooks as oil risk premium rebuilds.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

US-Iran War Reignites: 90 CENTCOM Strikes After Ceasefire Collapses — Oil Climbs 4.4% to $73.52 as Hormuz Risk Returns

US Central Command struck 90 Iranian military targets overnight after President Trump declared the fragile ceasefire "over" following Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and the US revoked its waiver on Iranian oil sales sanctions. WTI crude rose 4.4% to $73.52, Brent climbed 5.4% to $78.19. Dow futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.7% as AI names decoupled from the geopolitical shock.

PepsiCo Q2 2026 Revenue Beats at $24.18B, Up 6.4% — EPS Misses by $0.01 as North American Food and Beverage Volume Slumps

PepsiCo reported Q2 2026 revenue of $24.18 billion, up 6.4% year-over-year and above the $23.95 billion consensus, while adjusted EPS of $2.20 missed the $2.21 estimate by one cent. Organic revenue grew 2.4%, with international divisions driving gains while North American food and beverage volumes underperformed. The stock was down roughly 0.7% in premarket trading. Full-year guidance was not revised. Delta Air Lines reports Q2 results on Friday, keeping travel-sector earnings in focus.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire 'Over' After Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks — Brent Crude Spikes 5.2% to $78

President Trump declared the US-Iran memorandum of understanding 'over' after American forces struck Iran in retaliation for attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02, WTI rose 4.9% to $73.89, and the Dow fell more than 500 points. Trump threatened further strikes 'tonight,' while Iran's foreign ministry condemned the US military action as a gross violation of the ceasefire. Energy stocks gained; tech and semis sold off.