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Keir Starmer Resigns as UK Prime Minister — Andy Burnham Bid Triggers Pound Drop to 2026 Low

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader, clearing the path for newly elected MP Andy Burnham to seek the top job after winning the Makerfield by-election. The British pound fell to a 2026 low on fiscal policy uncertainty as a leadership contest begins, with nominations opening July 9. The political transition adds a fresh layer of global risk for US investors already weighing a hawkish Fed and Middle East diplomacy this week.

Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%; Dot Plot and Powell Press Conference in Focus as Iran War Complicates Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, with 99% market certainty baked into futures pricing. The real event for investors is the quarterly dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where the central bank must reconcile surging wholesale inflation, energy prices above $100, and a softening labor market — an increasingly stagflationary combination.

U.S. Economy Entered 2026 at Weakest Pace Since Pandemic as Q4 GDP Revised Down to 0.7%, Raising Stagflation Fears

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 2025 GDP growth sharply lower to a 0.7% annualized rate — half the government's initial estimate and well below economists' 1.4% forecast — painting a troubling portrait of an economy that was already weakening before the Iran war erupted and sent oil prices soaring. The data, combined with a January job market that shed 92,000 positions and lingering above-3% inflation, has amplified stagflation fears ahead of a critical Federal Reserve meeting.

FOMC Opens Two-Day Meeting as Fed Faces Stagflation Trap; Rate Hold Certain But Dot Plot Signals Split on 2026 Path

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day March 2026 policy meeting on Tuesday with a near-unanimous market expectation of a rate hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but attention is riveted on Wednesday's Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot — which is expected to reveal significant internal disagreement about the appropriate policy path given a 40%-plus oil price surge, a slowing economy, and sticky above-3% inflation. The meeting is also Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair before the Senate confirmation of nominated successor Kevin Warsh.

Strategists Warn Market Conditions Echo Pre-Crisis Signals as Oil Spike Raises Systemic Concerns

Some market strategists warn that the current combination of surging oil prices, tightening financial conditions and rising geopolitical risk resembles patterns seen before previous financial disruptions. The warning has prompted investors to reassess exposure to cyclical sectors while increasing allocations to defensive industries such as energy, utilities and defense contractors.

Wall Street Volatility Spikes as Stagflation Fears Grip Investors

Markets are grappling with a potentially dangerous combination of slowing economic growth and rising energy costs. Investors are increasingly worried that the U.S. economy could face stagflation, a scenario where inflation remains elevated even as growth weakens. The outlook has triggered sharp moves across equities, commodities and bond markets as traders reposition portfolios to navigate an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Fed Minutes Signal Higher-for-Longer Resolve as Officials Demand Sustained Disinflation Before Any Rate Cut

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January FOMC meeting, released Wednesday, revealed a sharply hawkish tilt among policymakers, with most officials signaling that sustained progress on inflation — not merely a single favorable data print — would be required before resuming rate cuts, pushing market expectations for the first 2026 reduction firmly to July and pressuring rate-sensitive equities, financials, and growth stocks.

Fed Minutes Reveal Deep Divide on Rate Path as Powell Succession Looms

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting, released Wednesday, showed officials broadly endorsing a pause in rate cuts but sharply divided on what comes next, with some members open to resuming easing if inflation continues to cool and others arguing for an extended hold — a split that is amplifying market uncertainty ahead of Friday's critical GDP and PCE data release.

Trump Administration Orders Pentagon to Purchase Coal-Fired Electricity in Historic Energy Reversal

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on February 11, 2026, directing the Department of Defense to enter long-term electricity contracts with coal-fired power plants, marking the administration's most aggressive attempt to revive the declining coal industry. The move, coupled with $175 million in Department of Energy funding for coal plant upgrades, could provide financial lifelines to dozens of facilities scheduled for retirement.