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Federal Reserve Targets 3.50%-3.75% Rate Hold Today — Kevin Warsh's First Press Conference Tests 55% Hawkish Bet

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% when it concludes a two-day policy meeting this afternoon, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. CME FedWatch data points to a roughly 97% probability of no change, but a Bank of America survey found 55% of respondents expect Warsh to strike a hawkish tone at his 2:30 p.m. press conference. An updated dot plot and economic projections due alongside the statement will offer the clearest signal yet on the rate path into 2027.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Opens First FOMC Meeting Today — Rate Hold at 3.50%-3.75% Widely Expected

The Federal Reserve opened a two-day FOMC meeting today, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing in a near-certain hold on the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Investors are focused less on the rate decision itself and more on Warsh's tone, the updated dot plot, and Wednesday's press conference for signals on policy direction into 2027 amid sticky inflation and pressure from the White House for lower rates.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

Retail Sales, Warsh Hearing, and Expiring Ceasefire: The Three Macro Events That Will Define This Week's Market Direction

Beyond the earnings deluge, three macro catalysts will determine whether the stock market's historic April rally can hold or unravel this week: Tuesday's retail sales data for March, expected at plus 1.4% month-over-month and closely watched as a consumer health indicator; Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing also Tuesday; and the Wednesday expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, which now appears at serious risk of collapse following the weekend ship seizure and Hormuz re-closure.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Trump Declares 2-Week Iran Ceasefire: WTI Oil Crashes 15% to $95.75, Airlines Surge as Markets Whipsaw

President Trump declared a 2-week suspension of US military operations against Iran on April 8, 2026, following a 10-point peace proposal brokered through Pakistani intermediaries. WTI crude oil immediately crashed 15% from $112 to $95.75 per barrel while US equity index futures initially surged 3% before fading to flat. Airlines led all sectors, with United Airlines surging 13.3% and Delta reporting a Q1 2026 earnings beat on the same morning.

Trump's Iran Ultimatum Deadline Arrives: Markets Brace for Binary Outcome as Oil Tops $112

President Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — or face destruction of its civilian infrastructure — arrived Tuesday as global markets churned under binary event risk. WTI crude traded above $112 per barrel while equities oscillated in a narrow range, with the VIX surging nearly 6% to 25.30. A Pakistani-mediated 45-day ceasefire framework known as the Islamabad Accord has emerged from diplomatic back-channels, though sources indicate a deal before the hard deadline remained unlikely.

Wells Fargo Abandons All 2026 Fed Rate Cut Forecasts as Iran War Locks In Inflation; March CPI Due Friday

Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced Monday it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at any point in 2026, abandoning its prior forecast of two cuts and citing oil-driven inflation from the Iran war and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The announcement sets up Friday's March CPI report as a high-stakes macro event, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projecting headline inflation surging from 2.4% to 3.16% year-over-year as the first full energy shock data is captured.

One Year After Liberation Day — S&P 500 Down 7% YTD but Markets Have Defied the Crash Predictions

Wednesday marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump's April 2, 2025 Liberation Day tariff announcement, and despite a rocky 12 months that saw the Supreme Court strike down IEEPA tariffs and a replacement 15% global baseline imposed, the S&P 500 has not crashed — but it has underperformed dramatically, down 7% year-to-date as global investors reassess American exceptionalism.