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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Proposes 20% Transit Fee on All Cargo — Brent Crude Jumps 9.5% to $83

President Trump announced the United States will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all non-Iranian cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effective Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Brent crude jumped 9.5% to above $83 per barrel, its biggest single-day gain since May 2020, while WTI settled near $78. The move follows a third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and effectively ends the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June.

TSMC June Revenue Climbs 67.9% to $14.6B — Q2 Total of $39.6B Tops High-End Guidance Ahead of July 16 Earnings

TSMC reported June 2026 revenue of NT$442.68 billion, or $14.6 billion, up 67.9% year-over-year and 6.2% from May, bringing second-quarter total revenue to roughly $39.6 billion — ahead of its own high-end guidance of $40.2 billion when measured on a Bloomberg calculation basis. The figures confirm robust AI chip demand and set a strong tone ahead of full Q2 earnings on July 16, when investors will watch for any raise to TSMC's full-year outlook and CoWoS capacity commentary.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

Meta Platforms Launches Muse Spark 1.1 AI Model and Plans September 'Iris' Chip Production — Stock Up 8.3% This Week

Meta Platforms released Muse Spark 1.1, its most capable AI model for coding and agentic tasks, alongside plans to begin manufacturing its in-house 'Iris' data center chip in September, targeting 14 gigawatts of compute by 2027. The combined announcements pushed Meta shares up roughly 4.7% Thursday and 1% in Friday premarket, cutting the stock's 2026 year-to-date loss from 14.5% to 4.2%. ARK Invest added shares after the release, while analysts project monetization gains through API pricing and advertising share.

Delta Air Lines Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS Beats at $1.56 vs. $1.48 Estimate — Record Fuel Bill of $3.93/Gallon Absorbs 25% Profit Drop

Delta Air Lines reported Q2 2026 adjusted earnings of $1.56 per share on adjusted revenue of $17.7 billion, beating Wall Street estimates of $1.48 EPS and $17.53 billion in revenue. Net income fell 25% year-over-year to $1.6 billion as fuel costs hit $3.93 per gallon — up 75% and the highest quarterly fuel expense in Delta's history. The carrier reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $6.50–$7.50 and guided Q3 for mid-teens revenue growth with $2.00–$2.50 adjusted EPS.

Arista Networks Hits All-Time High of $181.05 After 8.8% Rally — Q2 Earnings Set for August 4 With $11.5B Full-Year Guidance in Focus

Arista Networks closed at an all-time high of $181.05 on Wednesday after an 8.8% single-session rally, driven by BlackRock naming it one of its top 30 AI infrastructure stocks alongside validated deployments of its new 1.6-terabit 7060XE7 switching platforms with Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. The stock carries $8.9 billion in multi-year purchase commitments and full-year AI revenue guidance of $3.5 billion. Second-quarter results are due August 4. The stock is up roughly 70% over the past 12 months.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.