Keyword → ITW

February Durable Goods Orders Miss at -1.8% — Manufacturing Contraction Deepens Recession Watch

Orders for durable manufactured goods fell 1.8 percent in February 2026, worse than the expected 0.5 percent decline, while the critical non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft reading dropped 1.1 percent. The miss adds to a growing body of deteriorating economic data and pushed JPMorgan's U.S. recession probability estimate to 40 percent for 2026.

U.S. Manufacturing Expands for Second Month Despite Tariff and Policy Uncertainty

U.S. manufacturing showed continued expansion in February as the ISM manufacturing index stayed above 50 for the second straight month, signaling modest growth. However, rising tariffs on metals and ongoing geopolitical tensions pose challenges to cost structures and supply chain efficiencies. While production and new orders showed strength, employment growth remained flat, prompting cautious optimism among industrial firms.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Holds at 52.4% in February, But Input Price Surge Raises Fed Rate-Cut Doubts

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI reading at 52.4 percent, but the report's input prices sub-index soared at its fastest pace since 2022, reinforcing investor concerns that renewed inflationary pressures — now compounded by surging oil prices from the Iran conflict — could lead the Federal Reserve to delay or abandon interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

U.S. Business Activity Growth Slows Significantly in February, Signals Economic Softening

New data from S&P Global shows that U.S. business activity expanded at the slowest pace in nearly a year in February, reflecting reduced manufacturing orders and slower services growth. While the economy remains in expansion territory, the slowdown could weigh on sentiment and corporate investment plans if the trend persists, particularly in cyclical sectors tied to industrial production and hiring.