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March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000, Signaling Early Labor Market Softening

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4, reaching 219,000 — above analyst expectations — while the four-week moving average ticked higher, offering early evidence that the energy-driven economic disruption may be beginning to filter into the labor market.

March Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts — 178,000 Payrolls Added, Unemployment Falls to 4.3%

Friday's March employment report delivered a decisive upside shock, with the U.S. economy adding 178,000 jobs against a consensus estimate of just 51,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% — a powerful labor market signal that directly challenges the recession narrative heading into Q1 2026 earnings season kicking off this week.

February PCE Inflation Eases to 2.3% — Core Holds at 2.6%, Fed Stays Patient

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index Friday, showing headline PCE inflation eased to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.5% in January while core PCE held steady at 2.6%. Both readings landed in line with consensus, reinforcing a Federal Reserve on hold through mid-year as incoming auto tariff risks threaten to stall the final mile of disinflation.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 57.0 — Tariff Fears Push Inflation Expectations to 5.0%

The University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment index dropped to 57.0, below the preliminary reading of 57.9 and the lowest since September 2025, as American households grew increasingly anxious about the impact of tariff-driven price increases on their finances. One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.0%, the highest reading since 2022, adding a stagflationary wrinkle to Friday's PCE data.

U.S. GDP Growth Confirmed at 2.4% for Q4 2025, Beating Initial Estimate

The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday confirmed U.S. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q4 2025, topping the advance estimate of 2.3% and reinforcing economic resilience heading into 2026. Upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment drove the beat, tempering stagflation concerns.

Weekly Jobless Claims Fall to 205,000, Signaling Continued Labor Market Strength

Initial unemployment claims dropped to 205,000 for the week ending March 21, the lowest reading since November 2025 and well below economists' forecasts of 218,000. The data reinforces a robust labor market that has supported consumer spending and corporate earnings even as the Federal Reserve maintains elevated interest rates.

Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since 2020 as Inflation Expectations Surge; Recession Watch Intensifies

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 88.3 in March, its lowest reading since the pandemic lows of 2020, as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 5.8% — the highest since 2022 — in a combination that is forcing economists to sharply revise their recession probability models and raising fresh questions about the durability of U.S. consumer spending.

Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Down to 0.7% as Stagflation Risk Mounts Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to just 0.7% on Friday, down sharply from the prior estimate of 1.4% and well below Wall Street's 1.5% consensus forecast. Paired with January core PCE inflation running at 3.1%, the data sharply raises stagflation concerns just days before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, where rate cuts now appear increasingly unlikely.