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U.S. Retail Sales Rise 0.9% in May 2026, Nearly Double 0.5% Forecast — Consumer Resilience Tested Ahead of Fed Decision

U.S. retail sales rose 0.9% in May, nearly double the 0.5% increase economists had forecast, according to Commerce Department data released this morning. Retail trade sales climbed 1.0% from April and 7.5% from a year earlier, with nonstore retailers up 12.2% year-over-year. The stronger-than-expected print arrives hours before the Federal Reserve's policy decision, giving officials fresh evidence that consumer spending remains resilient even as inflation stays above target.

Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on China Over Alleged Iran Arms Shipment, Escalating Trade and Geopolitical Tensions

President Trump on Sunday threatened to impose an immediate 50% tariff on Chinese goods if Beijing is proven to be supplying military weapons to Iran, following reports of a potential air defense system shipment. The warning compounds existing geopolitical stress and raises fresh concerns about U.S.-China trade relations ahead of a scheduled May summit, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile global market environment.

Iran Ceasefire Hangs by a Thread as Vance Heads to Islamabad; Strait of Hormuz Remains Effectively Closed

Vice President JD Vance departed Friday for Islamabad to lead U.S. peace talks with Iran this weekend, even as the fragile two-week ceasefire announced Tuesday showed serious cracks — with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, oil prices hovering near $98 per barrel, and both Iranian and Israeli leaders trading accusations of violations just days into the truce.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Meta and CoreWeave Seal $21 Billion AI Cloud Deal Through 2032, Powered by NVIDIA Vera Rubin

CoreWeave and Meta Platforms announced an expanded $21 billion agreement on Thursday to provide AI cloud computing capacity through December 2032, including early deployments of NVIDIA's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, bringing total Meta commitments to CoreWeave to $35 billion and signaling surging long-term demand for AI infrastructure.

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000, Signaling Early Labor Market Softening

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4, reaching 219,000 — above analyst expectations — while the four-week moving average ticked higher, offering early evidence that the energy-driven economic disruption may be beginning to filter into the labor market.

March Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts — 178,000 Payrolls Added, Unemployment Falls to 4.3%

Friday's March employment report delivered a decisive upside shock, with the U.S. economy adding 178,000 jobs against a consensus estimate of just 51,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% — a powerful labor market signal that directly challenges the recession narrative heading into Q1 2026 earnings season kicking off this week.

February PCE Inflation Eases to 2.3% — Core Holds at 2.6%, Fed Stays Patient

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index Friday, showing headline PCE inflation eased to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.5% in January while core PCE held steady at 2.6%. Both readings landed in line with consensus, reinforcing a Federal Reserve on hold through mid-year as incoming auto tariff risks threaten to stall the final mile of disinflation.

Trump Confirms 25% Auto Import Tariffs Take Effect April 3 — Automakers and Suppliers Slide

President Trump confirmed Friday that a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles will take effect April 3, 2026, sending shares of foreign-assembled vehicle brands and global auto suppliers sharply lower. Domestic automakers Ford and GM initially rallied on the news before pulling back as investors assessed complex supply chain exposure, with analysts warning the tariffs could add $4,000 to $12,000 to new vehicle sticker prices.