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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.

Gold Climbs 1.47% to $4,183 as 57K Jobs Print Deflates Fed Hike Bets — Dollar Falls to Two-Week Low

Gold futures rose 1.47% to $4,183.45 per ounce on Friday as the dollar fell to a two-week low after the June jobs report showed only 57,000 new positions — well below the 110,000 forecast — sharply reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Gold had bounced from an eight-month low below $4,000 earlier in the week, and the payroll miss now extends that rebound. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold averaging $6,000 by year-end 2026 if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

Retail Sales, Warsh Hearing, and Expiring Ceasefire: The Three Macro Events That Will Define This Week's Market Direction

Beyond the earnings deluge, three macro catalysts will determine whether the stock market's historic April rally can hold or unravel this week: Tuesday's retail sales data for March, expected at plus 1.4% month-over-month and closely watched as a consumer health indicator; Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing also Tuesday; and the Wednesday expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, which now appears at serious risk of collapse following the weekend ship seizure and Hormuz re-closure.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Trump Declares 2-Week Iran Ceasefire: WTI Oil Crashes 15% to $95.75, Airlines Surge as Markets Whipsaw

President Trump declared a 2-week suspension of US military operations against Iran on April 8, 2026, following a 10-point peace proposal brokered through Pakistani intermediaries. WTI crude oil immediately crashed 15% from $112 to $95.75 per barrel while US equity index futures initially surged 3% before fading to flat. Airlines led all sectors, with United Airlines surging 13.3% and Delta reporting a Q1 2026 earnings beat on the same morning.

Trump's Iran Ultimatum Deadline Arrives: Markets Brace for Binary Outcome as Oil Tops $112

President Trump's self-imposed 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — or face destruction of its civilian infrastructure — arrived Tuesday as global markets churned under binary event risk. WTI crude traded above $112 per barrel while equities oscillated in a narrow range, with the VIX surging nearly 6% to 25.30. A Pakistani-mediated 45-day ceasefire framework known as the Islamabad Accord has emerged from diplomatic back-channels, though sources indicate a deal before the hard deadline remained unlikely.

Wells Fargo Abandons All 2026 Fed Rate Cut Forecasts as Iran War Locks In Inflation; March CPI Due Friday

Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced Monday it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at any point in 2026, abandoning its prior forecast of two cuts and citing oil-driven inflation from the Iran war and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The announcement sets up Friday's March CPI report as a high-stakes macro event, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projecting headline inflation surging from 2.4% to 3.16% year-over-year as the first full energy shock data is captured.