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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

JPMorgan Q2 2026 EPS Beats at $6.14 vs. $5.85 Estimate; Revenue Hits $58.02B — Wells Fargo Posts $2.00 EPS on $1.72 Forecast

JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 EPS of $6.14 against the $5.85 LSEG consensus and revenue of $58.02 billion, towering above the $50.19 billion estimate in one of the company's largest-ever quarterly beats. Wells Fargo matched with $2.00 EPS versus the $1.72 estimate. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup were still pending before the open. Combined, the five banks hold more than $13 trillion in assets and set the tone for an earnings season where S&P 500 profits are expected to grow 23.9% in Q2.

AppLovin Drops 12.7% to $448 — BofA E-Commerce Pixel Slowdown Data and AI Trade Risk-Off Compound Insider Selling Overhang

AppLovin shares fell 12.7% to close at $447.93 on Monday, the worst performer in the S&P 500, as a Bank of America analysis found the company's e-commerce pixel installations slowed to roughly 750 new additions in June from 950 in May. The decline was compounded by a broad AI trade risk-off triggered by the Hormuz blockade escalation and persistent concern over CEO Adam Foroughi's approximately $51 million in June share sales. AppLovin reports Q2 earnings on August 5, guiding for $1.93 billion in revenue.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

Q2 2026 Bank Earnings Season Opens Tuesday — JPMorgan Consensus EPS $5.49, Goldman $14.47, Options Markets Price 4-6% Swings

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all report Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday before the open, the same morning as the June CPI release. Consensus expects JPMorgan EPS of $5.49 on $48.7 billion in revenue and Goldman EPS of $14.47 on roughly $16 billion — both reflecting year-over-year growth above 10%. Options markets are pricing single-day moves of 4.4% to 6.0%, and the KBW Bank Index is trading near record highs ahead of results.

Meta Platforms Launches Muse Spark 1.1 AI Model and Plans September 'Iris' Chip Production — Stock Up 8.3% This Week

Meta Platforms released Muse Spark 1.1, its most capable AI model for coding and agentic tasks, alongside plans to begin manufacturing its in-house 'Iris' data center chip in September, targeting 14 gigawatts of compute by 2027. The combined announcements pushed Meta shares up roughly 4.7% Thursday and 1% in Friday premarket, cutting the stock's 2026 year-to-date loss from 14.5% to 4.2%. ARK Invest added shares after the release, while analysts project monetization gains through API pricing and advertising share.

Arista Networks Hits All-Time High of $181.05 After 8.8% Rally — Q2 Earnings Set for August 4 With $11.5B Full-Year Guidance in Focus

Arista Networks closed at an all-time high of $181.05 on Wednesday after an 8.8% single-session rally, driven by BlackRock naming it one of its top 30 AI infrastructure stocks alongside validated deployments of its new 1.6-terabit 7060XE7 switching platforms with Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. The stock carries $8.9 billion in multi-year purchase commitments and full-year AI revenue guidance of $3.5 billion. Second-quarter results are due August 4. The stock is up roughly 70% over the past 12 months.

Samsung Q2 2026 Operating Profit Hits Record $58.4B, Up 19-Fold — Revenue Misses at 171T Won, Shares Fall 6.8%

Samsung Electronics posted a preliminary Q2 2026 operating profit of 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion), a 19-fold year-over-year increase that set a new all-time corporate record and beat the LSEG SmartEstimate of 87.3 trillion won. Revenue came in at 171 trillion won, up 129% year-over-year but short of the 172.2 trillion won consensus. Shares fell as much as 6.8% in Seoul as some traders had expected profit to top 100 trillion won before bonus provisions, dragging Micron and SanDisk lower in US premarket.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.