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February Durable Goods Orders Miss at -1.8% — Manufacturing Contraction Deepens Recession Watch

Orders for durable manufactured goods fell 1.8 percent in February 2026, worse than the expected 0.5 percent decline, while the critical non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft reading dropped 1.1 percent. The miss adds to a growing body of deteriorating economic data and pushed JPMorgan's U.S. recession probability estimate to 40 percent for 2026.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Holds at 52.4% in February, But Input Price Surge Raises Fed Rate-Cut Doubts

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI reading at 52.4 percent, but the report's input prices sub-index soared at its fastest pace since 2022, reinforcing investor concerns that renewed inflationary pressures — now compounded by surging oil prices from the Iran conflict — could lead the Federal Reserve to delay or abandon interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

Tariff Regime in Flux as Trump Replaces Struck-Down IEEPA Levies With 10–15% Section 122 Duties

Following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated President Trump's broad emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA, the administration swiftly replaced them with a 10% across-the-board import duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirming the rate will rise to 15% for certain trading partners. The legal and economic uncertainty is reverberating across equity, commodity, and currency markets.

Steel Stocks Slip on Rumored Tariff Rollback

Shares of major U.S. steel producers fell as concerns mounted that the White House may roll back tariffs on imported steel and aluminum implemented in 2025. Investors are pricing in a potential reduction in protection for domestic producers, weighing on earnings outlooks for companies that had benefited from elevated commodity prices and strong domestic demand.