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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Proposes 20% Transit Fee on All Cargo — Brent Crude Jumps 9.5% to $83

President Trump announced the United States will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all non-Iranian cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effective Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Brent crude jumped 9.5% to above $83 per barrel, its biggest single-day gain since May 2020, while WTI settled near $78. The move follows a third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and effectively ends the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June.

JPMorgan Q2 2026 EPS Beats at $6.14 vs. $5.85 Estimate; Revenue Hits $58.02B — Wells Fargo Posts $2.00 EPS on $1.72 Forecast

JPMorgan Chase reported Q2 2026 EPS of $6.14 against the $5.85 LSEG consensus and revenue of $58.02 billion, towering above the $50.19 billion estimate in one of the company's largest-ever quarterly beats. Wells Fargo matched with $2.00 EPS versus the $1.72 estimate. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup were still pending before the open. Combined, the five banks hold more than $13 trillion in assets and set the tone for an earnings season where S&P 500 profits are expected to grow 23.9% in Q2.

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

Q2 2026 Bank Earnings Season Opens Tuesday — JPMorgan Consensus EPS $5.49, Goldman $14.47, Options Markets Price 4-6% Swings

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all report Q2 2026 earnings Tuesday before the open, the same morning as the June CPI release. Consensus expects JPMorgan EPS of $5.49 on $48.7 billion in revenue and Goldman EPS of $14.47 on roughly $16 billion — both reflecting year-over-year growth above 10%. Options markets are pricing single-day moves of 4.4% to 6.0%, and the KBW Bank Index is trading near record highs ahead of results.

Arista Networks Hits All-Time High of $181.05 After 8.8% Rally — Q2 Earnings Set for August 4 With $11.5B Full-Year Guidance in Focus

Arista Networks closed at an all-time high of $181.05 on Wednesday after an 8.8% single-session rally, driven by BlackRock naming it one of its top 30 AI infrastructure stocks alongside validated deployments of its new 1.6-terabit 7060XE7 switching platforms with Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle. The stock carries $8.9 billion in multi-year purchase commitments and full-year AI revenue guidance of $3.5 billion. Second-quarter results are due August 4. The stock is up roughly 70% over the past 12 months.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

SpaceX SPCX Joins Nasdaq-100 Today via Fast-Track — $4.3B in QQQ Forced Buying Hits a 3%–5% Float Stock

SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today, just 15 trading days after its June 12 IPO, making it one of the fastest additions ever to a major U.S. benchmark. JPMorgan estimates the inclusion will trigger roughly $4.3 billion in forced buying from QQQ alone, with up to $27 billion across all Nasdaq-100 and Russell trackers. The catch: only 3% to 5% of SPCX shares are publicly traded, creating an unusually tight supply-demand setup during the mechanical rebalance.