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Trump Reinstates Strait of Hormuz Blockade; Proposes 20% Transit Fee on All Cargo — Brent Crude Jumps 9.5% to $83

President Trump announced the United States will reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and impose a 20% fee on all non-Iranian cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, effective Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. Brent crude jumped 9.5% to above $83 per barrel, its biggest single-day gain since May 2020, while WTI settled near $78. The move follows a third consecutive night of US strikes on Iran and effectively ends the ceasefire agreement signed in mid-June.

February Durable Goods Orders Miss at -1.8% — Manufacturing Contraction Deepens Recession Watch

Orders for durable manufactured goods fell 1.8 percent in February 2026, worse than the expected 0.5 percent decline, while the critical non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft reading dropped 1.1 percent. The miss adds to a growing body of deteriorating economic data and pushed JPMorgan's U.S. recession probability estimate to 40 percent for 2026.

Brent Crude Spikes to $106 After Iran Strikes South Pars Gas Field; Strait of Hormuz Fears Escalate

Global oil benchmark Brent crude spiked 3.1% to above $106 per barrel on Wednesday after Iran reported an attack on its South Pars natural gas processing complex — the world's largest gas field — in apparent retaliation for recent Israeli strikes. The development reignited fears that the conflict could escalate toward a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply transits daily.

Trump's 15% Global Tariff Set to Take Full Effect This Week, Bessent Signals Rollback Within Five Months

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Thursday that President Trump's revised 15% global tariff, enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 following the Supreme Court's invalidation of IEEPA-based duties, will take full effect this week, though Bessent expressed confidence the rates would revert to prior levels within five months as trade authorities complete sector-specific assessments.

Stock Futures Rally Amid Mixed Data, Oil Stabilization Signals Soft Landing Hope

Stock futures in the U.S. pointed modestly higher on Wednesday as traders digested a mix of economic indicators and geopolitical news. After recent volatility tied to the Middle East conflict, oil prices showed signs of stabilization and moderating inflation fears, giving equities a slight boost ahead of the trading session. Investors also monitored corporate earnings projections and bond market movements as they weighed broader economic resilience against ongoing risk factors.

Iran Conflict Pushes U.S. Treasury Yields Higher, Challenging Safe-Haven Narrative

Escalating conflict involving U.S. and allied forces in Iran has paradoxically lifted U.S. Treasury yields as investors reassess safe-haven strategies and inflation expectations. Rather than a typical flight into bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4%, reflecting market anxiety over sustained energy price pressures and the potential for inflation to derail expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Dow Jones Plunges Over 900 Points as Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets

U.S. equity markets experienced a dramatic sell-off today as escalating conflict in the Middle East sent shockwaves through global financial markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 900 points, while major indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ also posted sharp losses, fueled in part by a surge in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

Middle East Conflict Lifts Oil Prices as Markets Rebound From Early Losses

Global equity markets showed signs of stabilization later in the session as some early losses were pared back, but the overarching influence of Middle Eastern geopolitical developments continued to drive volatility. Oil prices climbed sharply, benefiting energy stocks, while traditional defensive sectors attracted flows amid inflation and supply risk concerns.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Holds at 52.4% in February, But Input Price Surge Raises Fed Rate-Cut Doubts

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI reading at 52.4 percent, but the report's input prices sub-index soared at its fastest pace since 2022, reinforcing investor concerns that renewed inflationary pressures — now compounded by surging oil prices from the Iran conflict — could lead the Federal Reserve to delay or abandon interest rate cuts in the months ahead.