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Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Oil Back Above $100

A two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sparked a historic rally on Wednesday, but optimism faded Thursday as Iran continued restricting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI crude back above $100 per barrel and sending equities lower after the prior session's surge.

White House Unveils Record $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget as Stocks Pull Back on Ceasefire Hopes

The White House unveiled a record $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal for fiscal year 2027, the largest military spending request in U.S. history, citing active munitions depletion from Operation Epic Fury and urgent stockpile replenishment needs. The announcement came as Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Northrop Grumman retreated sharply on April 6 when the Islamabad Accord ceasefire framework emerged, unwinding part of the war-driven premium that had stretched the aerospace and defense sector to 32 times forward earnings.

One Year After Liberation Day — S&P 500 Down 7% YTD but Markets Have Defied the Crash Predictions

Wednesday marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump's April 2, 2025 Liberation Day tariff announcement, and despite a rocky 12 months that saw the Supreme Court strike down IEEPA tariffs and a replacement 15% global baseline imposed, the S&P 500 has not crashed — but it has underperformed dramatically, down 7% year-to-date as global investors reassess American exceptionalism.

U.S. GDP Growth Confirmed at 2.4% for Q4 2025, Beating Initial Estimate

The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday confirmed U.S. GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 2.4% in Q4 2025, topping the advance estimate of 2.3% and reinforcing economic resilience heading into 2026. Upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment drove the beat, tempering stagflation concerns.

February Durable Goods Orders Miss at -1.8% — Manufacturing Contraction Deepens Recession Watch

Orders for durable manufactured goods fell 1.8 percent in February 2026, worse than the expected 0.5 percent decline, while the critical non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft reading dropped 1.1 percent. The miss adds to a growing body of deteriorating economic data and pushed JPMorgan's U.S. recession probability estimate to 40 percent for 2026.

Wall Street Volatility Surges as Geopolitics and Energy Shock Trigger Sector Rotation

U.S. equities swung sharply Friday as investors reassessed risk following surging oil prices and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Market volatility increased as institutional investors rotated out of consumer and transportation sectors and into energy, defense and commodities. The shift highlights growing concern that higher energy prices could prolong inflation pressures and slow economic momentum across global markets.

U.S. Stocks Rebound as Oil Pullback Sparks Short-Term Relief Rally

U.S. equities staged a tentative rebound Friday as oil prices eased slightly after a sharp geopolitical-driven rally earlier in the week. Investors cautiously returned to risk assets as energy markets stabilized, though uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict continues to cloud the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and corporate earnings.

Brent Crude Surges Past $96 as Iran Mines Strait of Hormuz, S&P 500 Extends Losses

Brent crude climbed above $96 a barrel Thursday as Iran's new supreme leader signaled no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. forces confirming Tehran is actively mining the waterway. The S&P 500 lost 1.3%, falling to its lowest level since November, as stagflation fears intensified across equity, credit, and currency markets.

Strait of Hormuz Attacks Drive Brent Above $90 as Iran War Rattles Global Shipping Markets

Three commercial vessels were struck by projectiles in or near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, including one ship forced to evacuate its crew after a fire broke out 11 nautical miles north of Oman. Brent crude climbed back above $90 per barrel despite a proposed record release of emergency reserves by the International Energy Agency, as military escalation between the U.S. and Iran continued to unsettle global energy markets.