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Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

Powell Speech Preview: Markets Brace for Wednesday's Peterson Institute Address as Rate Hike Odds Hit 55%

With rate hike odds for October climbing to 55% following Tuesday's dire consumer confidence data, all eyes are turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Wednesday address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, where markets are hoping for clarity on whether the Fed will tolerate a growth slowdown to anchor inflation expectations or signal any willingness to pause its hawkish stance.

Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.

U.S. Primary Credit Market Competition Hits Record High as Bond Demand Surges

A Barclays report published today shows competition in the U.S. primary credit market reaching unprecedented levels, driven by strong investor demand for corporate bonds. Issuance in both investment-grade and high-yield sectors saw marked increases in allocations, reflecting surging investor interest and structural shifts. Robust demand is pushing trading activity higher across large deals, with implications for credit spreads and yield curves as investors reprice risk in fixed income markets.

Kevin Warsh Nomination Advances as Markets Weigh Federal Reserve Independence Risk and Monetary Policy Shift

President Trump's nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair remains a defining market overhang, with Senate confirmation complicated by bipartisan resistance tied to the administration's criminal investigation into Powell. As Powell's term expires in May, investors are recalibrating rate-cut expectations and reassessing rate-sensitive sectors from housing to financials given Warsh's historically hawkish monetary policy record.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Rise as Bond Yields Fall Following Tame Inflation Data

Treasury yields declined sharply following better-than-expected January inflation data, with two-year yields approaching their lowest levels since October. Money markets now price in approximately 63 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, equivalent to around 50% odds of a third reduction by December.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates at 3.50-3.75% as Markets Price in Mid-Year Easing

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in its range of 3.50-3.75 percent at its January 2026 meeting, pausing its easing cycle after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Market participants are now pricing increased probability of rate cuts beginning in April or June as employment data suggests greater labor market cooling than previously recognized.