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June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

June Jobs Report Adds Only 57,000 vs. 110,000 Expected — September Hike Odds Plunge to 50.7% as Labor Market Cools

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, barely half the 110,000 consensus forecast and the fewest in four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prior-month revisions subtracted a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but only because the labor force participation rate dropped to a five-year low of 61.5%. CME FedWatch now shows a 50.7% probability of a September hike, down sharply from 62.8% before the release.

June Nonfarm Payrolls Due at 8:30 AM — Consensus Expects 100,000 Jobs as Fed Rate-Hike Odds Hit 54.5% for 2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June nonfarm payrolls report today at 8:30 AM ET, with Wall Street consensus at 100,000 new jobs versus 172,000 in May. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected at 0.3% month-over-month. Markets pricing a 54.5% chance of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Wednesday's soft ADP print of 98,000 private-sector jobs has left investors on edge ahead of the binary catalyst.

Treasury Yields Climb to 4.48% on 10-Year Ahead of Thursday's Core PCE Report — Markets Brace for Possible October Hike Signal

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.483% as investors positioned ahead of Thursday's core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The move follows last week's hawkish FOMC meeting, in which the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Financial and short-duration bond sectors are best positioned if inflation data confirms the Fed's more hawkish stance.

Kevin Warsh Faces Senate Banking Committee Tuesday in High-Stakes Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing

Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to succeed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires May 15, appears before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET. Markets are watching for signals on Fed independence, the pace of balance sheet reduction, and rate policy at a moment when energy-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty have left the central bank's path highly uncertain.

Retail Sales, Warsh Hearing, and Expiring Ceasefire: The Three Macro Events That Will Define This Week's Market Direction

Beyond the earnings deluge, three macro catalysts will determine whether the stock market's historic April rally can hold or unravel this week: Tuesday's retail sales data for March, expected at plus 1.4% month-over-month and closely watched as a consumer health indicator; Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation hearing also Tuesday; and the Wednesday expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire, which now appears at serious risk of collapse following the weekend ship seizure and Hormuz re-closure.

March CPI Surges to 3.3% Annual Rate as Iran War-Driven Energy Shock Accelerates Inflation

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning that the Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, the largest monthly gain since 2022, as the U.S.-Iran war sent gasoline prices soaring above $4 per gallon and sharply widened the gap between headline and core inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's rate path ahead of its May 1 policy decision.

Powell Shocks Markets With Hawkish Peterson Institute Speech — Rate Hike Odds Surge to 68%

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a sharply hawkish address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, signaling the Fed retains all tools to combat inflation. Rate hike odds for October surged to 68 percent as the S&P 500 fell 1.4 percent and 2-year Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to 4.92 percent.