Keyword → rate hike

Fed Chair Warsh Prepares for Debut Congressional Testimony Tuesday — 70% Market Probability of September Rate Hike Hangs on His Words

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, Tuesday July 14, with the June CPI report landing 90 minutes before the hearing begins. Markets currently price a 70% probability of a September rate hike after his hawkish June FOMC debut, where nine of nineteen officials projected at least one increase before year-end. Warsh's stance on AI-driven disinflation versus persistent energy-fueled price pressures is the pivotal unknown for rates, equities, and crypto.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

Bitcoin Drops 2.2% to $62,038 as Iran Re-Escalation and Hawkish Fed Minutes Dual-Press Crypto Risk Assets

Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $62,038 as traders confronted a simultaneous double shock: Iran's ceasefire collapse sent oil surging and risk appetite cratering, while the Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, releasing at 2 p.m. ET, are expected to confirm a hawkish internal debate with nine of eighteen officials favoring a 2026 rate hike. Markets assign a 40% probability of a hike to 3.75%-4.00% by December, and any confirmation of aggressive internal sentiment could push crypto lower.

Gold Climbs 1.47% to $4,183 as 57K Jobs Print Deflates Fed Hike Bets — Dollar Falls to Two-Week Low

Gold futures rose 1.47% to $4,183.45 per ounce on Friday as the dollar fell to a two-week low after the June jobs report showed only 57,000 new positions — well below the 110,000 forecast — sharply reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. Gold had bounced from an eight-month low below $4,000 earlier in the week, and the payroll miss now extends that rebound. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold averaging $6,000 by year-end 2026 if geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

Semiconductor Stocks Fall 7–9% in Premarket — Rate-Hike Fears and Profit-Taking Hit Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia After Record Q2

Micron Technology fell 7%, SanDisk dropped 9%, and Nvidia shed 2.5% in premarket trading as investors took profits following the best quarter for chips since the sector's inception, with rate-hike fears amplifying the selling. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained 82% in the first half of 2026. Thursday's hotter-than-expected PCE print gave traders additional cover to trim exposure in the year's most crowded trade as the second half of 2026 begins.

ADP June Payrolls Miss at 98,000 vs. 118,000 Estimate — Weakest Private Hiring Since May 2025 Signals Labor Cooling

U.S. private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of the 118,000 economist consensus and down from an unrevised 122,000 in May, according to ADP's National Employment Report released this morning. Annual pay grew 4.4% year-over-year. The miss sets up a cautious tone ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report and adds complexity to a Fed weighing sticky inflation against softening labor demand ahead of a potential 2026 rate hike.

S&P 500 Futures Slip 0.3% to Open H2 2026 — Nasdaq-100 Futures Drop 0.9% as Best Quarter Since 2020 Gives Way to Rate-Hike Anxiety

S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures dropped 0.9% to open the second half of 2026, reversing Tuesday's gains that capped the strongest quarter for US equities since 2020. The S&P 500 rallied more than 14% in Q2, the Nasdaq gained roughly 20%, and the Dow added over 12%. Now markets face a Fed projecting at least one rate hike, a weak ADP jobs print, and a chip sector under profit-taking pressure before Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% — Highest Since April 2023 With Core at 3.4%, Above 3.3% Forecast, Cementing September Fed Rate Hike as Base Case

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023, driven by energy-cost pass-through from the Iran war, matching headline consensus but printing core PCE at 3.4% — a tick above the 3.3% expected. Monthly headline PCE rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Markets moved to price a September Federal Reserve rate hike as base case, though analysts broadly viewed May as likely the inflation peak given the sharp subsequent decline in oil prices following Iran ceasefire progress.

Nasdaq 100 Futures Slide 3.1%, Kospi Plunges 10% — Global AI Selloff Hits SK Hynix and Samsung as Rate-Hike Fears Mount

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 3.1% in premarket trading Tuesday while South Korea's Kospi plunged nearly 10% — its worst session in years — as a global technology selloff intensified overnight. SK Hynix fell more than 12% and Samsung Electronics dropped sharply, triggering circuit breakers on South Korean exchanges. European markets followed, with ASML down 5% and the Euro Stoxx Technology index falling 3%. The selloff reflects mounting investor concern over Federal Reserve rate-hike signals and the cost of AI infrastructure debt.