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Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.

U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran Trigger Broad Market Selloff as Oil Surges and Safe Havens Rally

A joint U.S.-Israeli military offensive against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, sent shockwaves through global financial markets on Monday, pushing oil prices up as much as 13 percent, gold above $5,400 per ounce, and sparking a broad equity selloff as investors repositioned into safe-haven assets amid fears of prolonged conflict and energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume With No Deal, Lifting Oil While Markets Brace for Geopolitical Risk

Diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program concluded in Geneva without a resolution, with technical-level discussions now scheduled to resume in Vienna next week. While the continuation of negotiations eased the most acute fears of an imminent military confrontation, analysts at Raymond James warned that a U.S. military operation against Iran remains likely at this stage, keeping crude oil elevated and energy stocks in focus.

Gold Surges Past $5,044 as U.S. Military Strikes on Iran Seen as Imminent, Oil Markets on Edge

Gold prices surged to $5,044 per ounce on Friday as reports circulated that U.S. national security officials have briefed President Trump that the military is prepared for potential strikes on Iran, sending safe-haven assets sharply higher and pushing silver above $80 per ounce, while defense stocks and energy equities rallied on the prospect of broader Middle East conflict.

Stocks Slip Before the Open as Geopolitical and Economic Concerns Surface

U.S. equity futures softened in early trading as investors weigh geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East, alongside incoming economic data and corporate earnings risks. The cautious tone ahead of the open reflects investor sensitivity to global volatility and macroeconomic indicators as markets try to gauge the near-term direction for stocks.

Global Markets Muted as AI Jitters and Geopolitical Tensions Influence Traders

Global stock markets were largely quiet, with muted trading in Europe and Asia as investors balanced concerns over AI sector pressure with geopolitical developments including U.S.-Iran talks. Futures for major U.S. indices remained lower, while commodities such as crude oil saw modest gains amid shifting risk sentiment.

Oil Prices Slip as OPEC Supply Discipline Faces Market Skepticism

Crude prices edged lower as traders questioned the durability of OPEC’s supply curbs amid rising non-OPEC production. The move added pressure to energy equities and reignited debate over the cartel’s ability to balance global markets.

Oil Prices Slip as OPEC Supply Discipline Meets Softer Demand Signals

Crude prices edged lower as traders balanced OPEC’s continued supply restraint against signs of slowing demand growth in key economies. Energy equities lagged the broader market amid renewed volatility in commodities.

Global Commodities Rally as Oil and Metals Extend Gains on Geopolitical Tensions

Oil and precious metals surged on Thursday amid renewed geopolitical tensions that raised concerns over supply disruptions, pushing Brent crude above $70 per barrel and driving gold and industrial metals prices to multi-year highs. Investors shifted allocations toward commodities, reflecting safe-haven demand and broader macroeconomic risk premiums across energy and metals markets.