Keyword → monetary policy 2026

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

FOMC Opens Two-Day Meeting as Fed Faces Stagflation Trap; Rate Hold Certain But Dot Plot Signals Split on 2026 Path

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day March 2026 policy meeting on Tuesday with a near-unanimous market expectation of a rate hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but attention is riveted on Wednesday's Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot — which is expected to reveal significant internal disagreement about the appropriate policy path given a 40%-plus oil price surge, a slowing economy, and sticky above-3% inflation. The meeting is also Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair before the Senate confirmation of nominated successor Kevin Warsh.