Keyword → inflation data

Treasury Yields Climb to 4.48% on 10-Year Ahead of Thursday's Core PCE Report — Markets Brace for Possible October Hike Signal

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.483% as investors positioned ahead of Thursday's core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The move follows last week's hawkish FOMC meeting, in which the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Financial and short-duration bond sectors are best positioned if inflation data confirms the Fed's more hawkish stance.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

Soft Inflation Data Adds to Rate Cut Considerations

New inflation figures showed smaller-than-expected CPI increases in January, reinforcing expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in coming months. While markets reacted modestly, rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and financials could see renewed interest if cut timing becomes clearer.

Stock Markets Close Mixed on Presidents' Day Eve as AI Disruption Concerns Offset Inflation Relief

U.S. equity markets ended Friday's session with minimal movement despite better-than-expected January inflation data, as the S&P 500 edged up 0.05% while the Nasdaq declined 0.22%. Persistent concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting business models across software, financial services, and logistics sectors prevented a sustained rally, with investors rotating into defensive stocks and rate-sensitive sectors ahead of the Presidents' Day holiday closure.