Keyword → inflation

Weekly Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000, Signaling Early Labor Market Softening

The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims rose by 16,000 in the week ending April 4, reaching 219,000 — above analyst expectations — while the four-week moving average ticked higher, offering early evidence that the energy-driven economic disruption may be beginning to filter into the labor market.

Wells Fargo Abandons All 2026 Fed Rate Cut Forecasts as Iran War Locks In Inflation; March CPI Due Friday

Wells Fargo Investment Institute announced Monday it no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at any point in 2026, abandoning its prior forecast of two cuts and citing oil-driven inflation from the Iran war and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The announcement sets up Friday's March CPI report as a high-stakes macro event, with the Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model projecting headline inflation surging from 2.4% to 3.16% year-over-year as the first full energy shock data is captured.

Oil Rockets 10% as President Trump Issues Direct Military Warning to Iran — WTI Hits $110 Per Barrel

WTI crude futures surged more than 10% to $110.21 per barrel Thursday after President Trump issued a direct public warning of military action against Iran within two to three weeks, sending energy stocks sharply higher and triggering a wave of defensive positioning across airlines, shipping companies, and consumer-facing businesses with significant fuel-cost exposure.

February PCE Inflation Eases to 2.3% — Core Holds at 2.6%, Fed Stays Patient

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index Friday, showing headline PCE inflation eased to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.5% in January while core PCE held steady at 2.6%. Both readings landed in line with consensus, reinforcing a Federal Reserve on hold through mid-year as incoming auto tariff risks threaten to stall the final mile of disinflation.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Falls to 57.0 — Tariff Fears Push Inflation Expectations to 5.0%

The University of Michigan's final March consumer sentiment index dropped to 57.0, below the preliminary reading of 57.9 and the lowest since September 2025, as American households grew increasingly anxious about the impact of tariff-driven price increases on their finances. One-year inflation expectations surged to 5.0%, the highest reading since 2022, adding a stagflationary wrinkle to Friday's PCE data.

Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since 2020 as Inflation Expectations Surge; Recession Watch Intensifies

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 88.3 in March, its lowest reading since the pandemic lows of 2020, as one-year inflation expectations jumped to 5.8% — the highest since 2022 — in a combination that is forcing economists to sharply revise their recession probability models and raising fresh questions about the durability of U.S. consumer spending.

Gold Breaks $3,200 Milestone for First Time in History as Stagflation Fears and Safe-Haven Demand Converge

Gold surged past the historic $3,200 per troy ounce level for the first time on Friday, closing at $3,218 on the COMEX spot market as stagflation fears, geopolitical risk, and central bank buying drove the precious metal to another all-time record, with gold mining stocks amplifying the move and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF surging more than 5% on the session.

Gold on Track for Worst Week Since 1983 as Iran War Paradox Crushes Safe-Haven Appeal, Rate-Hike Bets Surge

Gold is on pace for its worst weekly performance since 1983, shedding more than 10% week-to-date as a paradoxical dynamic grips precious metals markets: the Iran war that initially drove bullion to record highs above $5,400 per ounce has morphed into a catalyst for collapse, as the conflict's inflationary consequences harden the Federal Reserve's 'higher for longer' stance, push the U.S. dollar to multi-month highs, and force leveraged futures traders to liquidate positions at scale. Silver is simultaneously tracking toward its worst week since January 2026.

Markets Price 50% Chance of Fed Rate Hike by October as Powell's 'Hawkish Hold' Reverberates Through Risk Assets

Bond futures markets are pricing a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by October 2026, a dramatic and rapid shift from the multiple rate cuts that were widely expected just three months ago, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference this week signaled that inflation progress has stalled and the Iran war's economic consequences will not meaningfully alter the central bank's calculus. The repricing has sent Treasury yields higher, crushed gold and growth stocks, and introduced the specter of stagflation across Wall Street's macro outlook.