Keyword → inflation

June CPI Falls 0.4% to 3.5% Annual Rate — Core Inflation Drops to 2.6%, Slashing Fed July Hike Odds to 17%

June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year, well below the 3.8% consensus, as gasoline prices collapsed in the wake of June's brief Hormuz ceasefire. Core CPI, which the Fed watches most closely, came in at 2.6% annually — a sharp deceleration from May's 2.9% and below the 2.8% estimate. CME FedWatch immediately repriced July hike odds from 42% to 17%, though September remains priced at roughly 60% for at least one increase.

Brent Crude Rises 4% to $78.82 — US-Iran Weekend Airstrikes Reopen Strait of Hormuz Dispute and Shatter June Peace Deal

Brent crude rose more than 4% to touch $78.82 a barrel after US and Iranian forces exchanged strikes over the weekend, with Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed and US Central Command asserting it remains open. The renewed conflict has all but shattered the June memorandum of understanding, with just six vessels tracked crossing the strait in a 12-hour window versus a pre-crisis baseline of 18 to 22 daily crossings. Energy stocks and airline equities face sharply divergent outlooks as oil risk premium rebuilds.

10-Year Treasury Yield Climbs to 4-Week High of 4.58% — Inflation Expectations at 3.7% Keep Rate Hike Pressure on Warsh-Led Fed

The US 10-year Treasury yield reached a four-week high of 4.58% Thursday, while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.7% as declining US oil inventories and renewed Iran conflict risk reinforce fuel-price concerns. S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% in premarket trading. The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released Wednesday, revealed deep internal divisions between officials favoring a rate hike and those supporting a cut, making incoming inflation data the dominant swing factor for policy.

FOMC June Minutes Release Today at 2 PM ET — Nine Hawkish Dots Signal Possible September Rate Hike to 3.75%-4.00%

The Federal Reserve releases its June 16-17 FOMC meeting minutes today at 2 p.m. ET, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who withheld his personal dot-plot projection. Nine of eighteen officials projected at least one rate hike before year-end, and markets assign a 40% probability of a move to 3.75%-4.00% by December. The minutes will reveal whether hawkish dots belong to voting members and how strongly the committee debated an immediate hike versus a hold.

Treasury Yields Climb to 4.48% on 10-Year Ahead of Thursday's Core PCE Report — Markets Brace for Possible October Hike Signal

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.483% as investors positioned ahead of Thursday's core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The move follows last week's hawkish FOMC meeting, in which the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Financial and short-duration bond sectors are best positioned if inflation data confirms the Fed's more hawkish stance.

Apple Raises Mac and iPad Prices 15% to 25% Across Lineup — AAPL Falls 6.1% to $275.15 as MacBook Pro Climbs $300 to $1,999 on Memory Cost Crunch

Apple raised Mac and iPad prices 15% to 25% across its hardware lineup, citing surging memory and storage costs driven by AI data-center demand. MacBook Air climbed $200 to $1,299, MacBook Pro rose $300 to $1,999, iPad Air increased $150 to $749, and iPad Pro gained $200 to $1,199. Shares dropped 6.1% to $275.15, their largest single-day decline of 2026. iPhone prices were left unchanged for now, though CEO Tim Cook hinted further increases could be coming as memory costs remain unsustainable.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% — Highest Since April 2023 With Core at 3.4%, Above 3.3% Forecast, Cementing September Fed Rate Hike as Base Case

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023, driven by energy-cost pass-through from the Iran war, matching headline consensus but printing core PCE at 3.4% — a tick above the 3.3% expected. Monthly headline PCE rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Markets moved to price a September Federal Reserve rate hike as base case, though analysts broadly viewed May as likely the inflation peak given the sharp subsequent decline in oil prices following Iran ceasefire progress.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

Brent Crude Falls Below $79 on June 22 2026 — Iran Negotiations Reduce Energy Risk Premium

Brent crude dropped below $79 per barrel as negotiations between the United States and Iran showed signs of progress. The decline reflects easing concerns about prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies. Lower oil prices could support consumer spending, reduce inflation pressure, and improve corporate profit margins, although investors remain cautious given the fragile nature of ongoing diplomatic discussions.