Keyword → federal reserve

Trump's 15% Global Tariff Set to Take Full Effect This Week, Bessent Signals Rollback Within Five Months

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Thursday that President Trump's revised 15% global tariff, enacted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 following the Supreme Court's invalidation of IEEPA-based duties, will take full effect this week, though Bessent expressed confidence the rates would revert to prior levels within five months as trade authorities complete sector-specific assessments.

Weekly Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Data Take Center Stage Ahead of Friday Payrolls Report

Markets are bracing for Thursday's Department of Labor weekly jobless claims release and January factory orders data, which together will help investors calibrate expectations for Friday's comprehensive February nonfarm payrolls report — a pivotal number for Federal Reserve rate policy at a moment when oil-driven inflation, global tariffs, and Middle East tensions are all complicating the central bank's calculus.

ADP Report: Private Payrolls Rise 63,000 in February, Beating Estimates but Revealing Narrow Job Growth

The ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday showed U.S. private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, topping consensus estimates of 50,000 and improving from a downwardly revised 11,000 in January. However, gains were concentrated almost entirely in construction and education and health services, with professional and business services shedding 30,000 positions, raising questions about underlying labor market breadth ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls report.

Middle East War Keeps Markets on Edge as Oil Steadies, S&P 500 Inches Higher

U.S. equities edged modestly higher Wednesday as the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed early signs of cooling, with Brent crude pulling back from Tuesday's highs after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled forthcoming measures to protect oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% while the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%, though investor anxiety over inflation and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts kept gains in check.

Fed Seen Holding Rates Steady in March as Iran War Stokes Inflation Fears and Complicates Policy Path

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming March meeting, as surging oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict introduce a new inflationary wrinkle into an already complex monetary policy calculus. Markets are now watching the ISM Services PMI report due Tuesday for real-time signals on domestic economic health.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Holds at 52.4% in February, But Input Price Surge Raises Fed Rate-Cut Doubts

The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month in February, with the PMI reading at 52.4 percent, but the report's input prices sub-index soared at its fastest pace since 2022, reinforcing investor concerns that renewed inflationary pressures — now compounded by surging oil prices from the Iran conflict — could lead the Federal Reserve to delay or abandon interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

Producer Price Index Surges in January, Crushing Rate-Cut Hopes and Sending Markets Lower

January's Producer Price Index rose 0.5% against a 0.3% consensus estimate, while core PPI surged 0.8% — more than double expectations. The hotter-than-forecast wholesale inflation data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer, sending the Dow down more than 700 points and extending what is shaping up to be the S&P 500's worst monthly performance since March 2025.

Tariff Regime in Flux as Trump Replaces Struck-Down IEEPA Levies With 10–15% Section 122 Duties

Following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated President Trump's broad emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA, the administration swiftly replaced them with a 10% across-the-board import duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirming the rate will rise to 15% for certain trading partners. The legal and economic uncertainty is reverberating across equity, commodity, and currency markets.

AI Relief Rally Lifts Tech as Meta-AMD Chip Deal Offsets Workday's Weak Outlook

U.S. technology stocks staged a broad-based relief rally Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 rising more than 1% as sentiment recovered from a deep AI disruption-driven selloff that had gripped the sector for weeks. Advanced Micro Devices surged roughly 9% after Meta Platforms disclosed a multiyear partnership to purchase millions of AMD chips, while Workday tumbled 7% after issuing a cautious revenue forecast that stoked fears about AI's impact on legacy enterprise software pricing models.