Keyword → federal reserve

Gold on Track for Worst Week Since 1983 as Iran War Paradox Crushes Safe-Haven Appeal, Rate-Hike Bets Surge

Gold is on pace for its worst weekly performance since 1983, shedding more than 10% week-to-date as a paradoxical dynamic grips precious metals markets: the Iran war that initially drove bullion to record highs above $5,400 per ounce has morphed into a catalyst for collapse, as the conflict's inflationary consequences harden the Federal Reserve's 'higher for longer' stance, push the U.S. dollar to multi-month highs, and force leveraged futures traders to liquidate positions at scale. Silver is simultaneously tracking toward its worst week since January 2026.

Markets Price 50% Chance of Fed Rate Hike by October as Powell's 'Hawkish Hold' Reverberates Through Risk Assets

Bond futures markets are pricing a 50% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by October 2026, a dramatic and rapid shift from the multiple rate cuts that were widely expected just three months ago, after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference this week signaled that inflation progress has stalled and the Iran war's economic consequences will not meaningfully alter the central bank's calculus. The repricing has sent Treasury yields higher, crushed gold and growth stocks, and introduced the specter of stagflation across Wall Street's macro outlook.

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%, Flags Sticky Inflation and Iran War Uncertainty; Markets Sell Off on Powell's Hawkish Tone

The Federal Reserve voted 11-1 to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, while its updated dot plot showed only one rate cut projected for all of 2026 and Chair Jerome Powell delivered a more hawkish-than-expected press conference that rattled markets. The Dow fell 768 points to its lowest close since November, as investors processed Powell's warning that higher energy prices could reignite inflation and that the Fed had 'not made as much progress on inflation as hoped.'

Hot PPI Data Rattles Wall Street as Wholesale Inflation Surges 0.7% in February, Doubling Expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Producer Price Index jumped 0.7% in February — more than double the 0.3% consensus estimate — pushing annual wholesale inflation to 3.4%, its highest level in a year. The hotter-than-expected reading, driven by a 48.9% spike in vegetable prices and broad goods inflation of 1.1%, arrived hours before the Federal Reserve's rate decision and reignited stagflation fears across equity and bond markets.

Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%–3.75%; Dot Plot and Powell Press Conference in Focus as Iran War Complicates Inflation Outlook

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, with 99% market certainty baked into futures pricing. The real event for investors is the quarterly dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, where the central bank must reconcile surging wholesale inflation, energy prices above $100, and a softening labor market — an increasingly stagflationary combination.

U.S. Economy Entered 2026 at Weakest Pace Since Pandemic as Q4 GDP Revised Down to 0.7%, Raising Stagflation Fears

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 2025 GDP growth sharply lower to a 0.7% annualized rate — half the government's initial estimate and well below economists' 1.4% forecast — painting a troubling portrait of an economy that was already weakening before the Iran war erupted and sent oil prices soaring. The data, combined with a January job market that shed 92,000 positions and lingering above-3% inflation, has amplified stagflation fears ahead of a critical Federal Reserve meeting.

FOMC Opens Two-Day Meeting as Fed Faces Stagflation Trap; Rate Hold Certain But Dot Plot Signals Split on 2026 Path

The Federal Open Market Committee began its two-day March 2026 policy meeting on Tuesday with a near-unanimous market expectation of a rate hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but attention is riveted on Wednesday's Summary of Economic Projections — the dot plot — which is expected to reveal significant internal disagreement about the appropriate policy path given a 40%-plus oil price surge, a slowing economy, and sticky above-3% inflation. The meeting is also Jerome Powell's last as Fed Chair before the Senate confirmation of nominated successor Kevin Warsh.

Investors Brace for Federal Reserve Signals as Policy Meeting Approaches

Global investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting as markets grapple with rising oil prices and lingering inflation concerns. The central bank’s updated economic projections and interest-rate outlook are expected to shape market expectations for monetary policy through the remainder of 2026. Equity markets remain sensitive to any signal about the timing of potential rate cuts or the possibility that policymakers could maintain a higher-for-longer stance if inflation proves stubborn.

Q4 GDP Revised Sharply Down to 0.7% as Stagflation Risk Mounts Ahead of Fed Meeting

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised fourth-quarter 2025 GDP growth to just 0.7% on Friday, down sharply from the prior estimate of 1.4% and well below Wall Street's 1.5% consensus forecast. Paired with January core PCE inflation running at 3.1%, the data sharply raises stagflation concerns just days before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, where rate cuts now appear increasingly unlikely.