Keyword → core PCE

Treasury Yields Climb to 4.48% on 10-Year Ahead of Thursday's Core PCE Report — Markets Brace for Possible October Hike Signal

The 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.483% as investors positioned ahead of Thursday's core PCE inflation report, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge. The move follows last week's hawkish FOMC meeting, in which the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% but signaled nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike before year-end. Financial and short-duration bond sectors are best positioned if inflation data confirms the Fed's more hawkish stance.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% — Highest Since April 2023 With Core at 3.4%, Above 3.3% Forecast, Cementing September Fed Rate Hike as Base Case

The May Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 4.1% year-over-year, its highest reading since April 2023, driven by energy-cost pass-through from the Iran war, matching headline consensus but printing core PCE at 3.4% — a tick above the 3.3% expected. Monthly headline PCE rose 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast. Markets moved to price a September Federal Reserve rate hike as base case, though analysts broadly viewed May as likely the inflation peak given the sharp subsequent decline in oil prices following Iran ceasefire progress.

May PCE Inflation Hits 4.1% Annual Rate — Three-Year High as Core PCE Accelerates to 3.4%, Q1 GDP Revised Up to 2.1%, and Jobless Claims Fall to 215K

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge rose to 4.1% annually in May, the highest since April 2023, as the Iran war's energy price impact continued feeding through consumer prices. Core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, slightly above the 3.3% consensus. Offsetting data showed Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% annualized from 1.6%, and initial jobless claims fell to 215,000. Markets lowered the probability of a July Fed rate hike to roughly 30%, with September remaining the base case.

February PCE Inflation Eases to 2.3% — Core Holds at 2.6%, Fed Stays Patient

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released February's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index Friday, showing headline PCE inflation eased to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.5% in January while core PCE held steady at 2.6%. Both readings landed in line with consensus, reinforcing a Federal Reserve on hold through mid-year as incoming auto tariff risks threaten to stall the final mile of disinflation.